Evening Up Ahead of USDA Report Seen for Grains
A slightly better start is expected this am, 3-5 wheat and steady/2 better beans but 2-4 down in corn, similar to overnight activity. Crude oil and the equities markets are a little higher while the $ index is steady/mixed this am, not enough to influence the grains significantly. The main activity today should be evening up and positioning ahead of the big USDA reports tomorrow am.
Open interest fell sharply in most pits Friday, perhaps reflecting some early evening up ahead of tomorrow's reports. Wheat open interest fell 7000 lots, corn dropped 23,000, beans were off 8000, oil lost 11,000 and meal declined 1000.
It appears Argentine President Fernandez lost control of the lower house of the Argentine Congress in mid-term elections yesterday. This could eventually result in agricultural policy changes, such as a lower bean export tax, long demanded by Argentine farmers.
Weekend rain fell in eastern parts of the Argentine wheat belt but the very dry western part of the belt had little relief as wheat continues to suffer from the ongoing drought there. The Indian monsoon finally advanced northward and is now only a few days behind normal, with improving rainfall. The director of India's government weather dep't said good monsoon rain is expected the next 7-10 days. June 1-24 monsoon rain was 58% below normal so improving conditions now are very welcome.
Some relief from hot and dry conditions was seen over the weekend in the southern part of the North China Plain and more scattered rain is forecast there the next two days. However, the north will remain hot and dry this week while the south will return to dry weather after tomorrow. This will further stress corn and beans in this region. Cooler temps are predicted this week in wheat and corn growing areas of Russia and the Ukraine but little rain is in the forecast during this time, increasing the need for moisture soon.
Generally favorable harvest weather is forecast for the southwest US winter wheat belt this week, allowing harvesting to catch up with a normal pace. The Midwest will see mostly dry weather and cooler temps this week after light, scattered weekend rains. The 6-10 day calls for cool and wet weather, a welcome combination.
No matter what happens in the market today, it will be forgotten at the close as traders continue to concentrate on the USDA numbers Tuesday am.---Vic Lespinasse
Open interest fell sharply in most pits Friday, perhaps reflecting some early evening up ahead of tomorrow's reports. Wheat open interest fell 7000 lots, corn dropped 23,000, beans were off 8000, oil lost 11,000 and meal declined 1000.
It appears Argentine President Fernandez lost control of the lower house of the Argentine Congress in mid-term elections yesterday. This could eventually result in agricultural policy changes, such as a lower bean export tax, long demanded by Argentine farmers.
Weekend rain fell in eastern parts of the Argentine wheat belt but the very dry western part of the belt had little relief as wheat continues to suffer from the ongoing drought there. The Indian monsoon finally advanced northward and is now only a few days behind normal, with improving rainfall. The director of India's government weather dep't said good monsoon rain is expected the next 7-10 days. June 1-24 monsoon rain was 58% below normal so improving conditions now are very welcome.
Some relief from hot and dry conditions was seen over the weekend in the southern part of the North China Plain and more scattered rain is forecast there the next two days. However, the north will remain hot and dry this week while the south will return to dry weather after tomorrow. This will further stress corn and beans in this region. Cooler temps are predicted this week in wheat and corn growing areas of Russia and the Ukraine but little rain is in the forecast during this time, increasing the need for moisture soon.
Generally favorable harvest weather is forecast for the southwest US winter wheat belt this week, allowing harvesting to catch up with a normal pace. The Midwest will see mostly dry weather and cooler temps this week after light, scattered weekend rains. The 6-10 day calls for cool and wet weather, a welcome combination.
No matter what happens in the market today, it will be forgotten at the close as traders continue to concentrate on the USDA numbers Tuesday am.---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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