Higher Grains Start Expected; USDA Trade Averages
A slightly higher start is expected in most pits this am, roughly 2 in wheat, 1 in corn and 4-5 in beans. Old crop beans and meal could be the exception, starting roughly 10-15 better and $6-7 better, respectively, in Jul. The $ is weak this am, a supportive feature for all the grains. The equity markets and crude oil are lower but only slightly, not enough to be an influence in the grains at this time.
The trade averages are now out for Tuesday's huge USDA reports: corn acreage is forecast 84.06 million; beans 78.21 million; all wheat 58.29 million; spring wheat 13.10 million and durum wheat 2.40 million. The USDA will also estimate quarterly stocks as of June 1st: 670 million bushels of wheat; 4.184 billion bushels of corn and 586 million bushels of beans. The acreage numbers will directly impact new crop prices while quarterly stocks will influence old crop prices. Weekly meal exports have exceeded the 5 year average for the last 14 weeks in a row, reflecting ongoing strong overseas demand for US meal.
Technicals: Every day this week Dec corn has tested support at the $4 level, each time bouncing after failing to break below it. The bears will probably try to force Dec corn below this mark again today, figuring there are a lot of commission house sell stops underneath.
Generally favorable weather is likely to continue in the major US grain areas with good harvest weather in the southwest winter wheat belt and good growing weather in the Midwest and northern plains spring wheat, corn and bean areas. This will pressure wheat and new crop corn and beans today. Old crop beans (and meal) should find continued strong support from ever-tightening supplies amid ongoing strong demand. Expect old crop to gain again today vs new crop in beans and meal as a result.
The weather overseas isn't as favorable with numerous trouble spots: too hot and dry in the North China Plain, stressing corn and beans there. If this continues into Jul, this would hurt corn as it tries to pollinate. Hot and dry weather is forecast to persist into next week in parts of Russia and the Ukraine, stressing wheat and corn. Very dry weather is likely to continue in Argentina's wheat belt with only light, scattered rain expected Sunday. Due to this severe drought, Argentine farmers are expected to plant only 2.9 million hectares of wheat this season, the smallest planted area for wheat since record keeping began over 100 years ago. ---Vic Lespinasse
The trade averages are now out for Tuesday's huge USDA reports: corn acreage is forecast 84.06 million; beans 78.21 million; all wheat 58.29 million; spring wheat 13.10 million and durum wheat 2.40 million. The USDA will also estimate quarterly stocks as of June 1st: 670 million bushels of wheat; 4.184 billion bushels of corn and 586 million bushels of beans. The acreage numbers will directly impact new crop prices while quarterly stocks will influence old crop prices. Weekly meal exports have exceeded the 5 year average for the last 14 weeks in a row, reflecting ongoing strong overseas demand for US meal.
Technicals: Every day this week Dec corn has tested support at the $4 level, each time bouncing after failing to break below it. The bears will probably try to force Dec corn below this mark again today, figuring there are a lot of commission house sell stops underneath.
Generally favorable weather is likely to continue in the major US grain areas with good harvest weather in the southwest winter wheat belt and good growing weather in the Midwest and northern plains spring wheat, corn and bean areas. This will pressure wheat and new crop corn and beans today. Old crop beans (and meal) should find continued strong support from ever-tightening supplies amid ongoing strong demand. Expect old crop to gain again today vs new crop in beans and meal as a result.
The weather overseas isn't as favorable with numerous trouble spots: too hot and dry in the North China Plain, stressing corn and beans there. If this continues into Jul, this would hurt corn as it tries to pollinate. Hot and dry weather is forecast to persist into next week in parts of Russia and the Ukraine, stressing wheat and corn. Very dry weather is likely to continue in Argentina's wheat belt with only light, scattered rain expected Sunday. Due to this severe drought, Argentine farmers are expected to plant only 2.9 million hectares of wheat this season, the smallest planted area for wheat since record keeping began over 100 years ago. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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