Higher Grains Start Expected
Grain prices are expected to start higher this am, roughly 5 in wheat and corn, 5-10 in beans. The $ index is lower this am while crude oil and the equity markets are higher, a bullish combination for all the grains. Dalian, China bean futures were lower again today amid talk the government would release beans into the domestic market from their stockpile perhaps within a few weeks.
The USDA June crop report will be out tomorrow am and there will be a fair amount of evening up today ahead of this report.
The Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed 78% of the beans have been planted vs 87% average. Corn is 97% done against 99% average. Spring wheat is 96% complete vs 100% average. Emergence is 87% in corn vs 94% average. Beans are 55% emerged vs 70% average and spring wheat is 84% vs 97% average. Winter wheat harvesting reached 5% done vs 10% usually by this time in the season. Corn rated 69% good to excellent vs 70% last week. Spring wheat was 72% good to excellent vs 73% a week ago. Winter wheat came in at 44% good to excellent vs 45% last week.
Technicals: My reading of the daily bar charts suggests beans and meal are still headed higher as both these markets made new highs for the move yesterday with beans scoring a 9 month high. Wheat, corn, oil and oats, however, look like they turned bearish, at least for now. Of course, markets, like the weather, can be mercurial so we will be ready to change positions again on the close today, depending on market action. We never stay married to any position.
Argentine wheat areas are forecast to stay dry the next 7 days or so, stressing the crop. Chinese corn and bean areas have benefited from recent rain and are in good shape for the time being but more rain will be needed, of course, over coming weeks and months to keep the crop outlook favorable.
The US southwest winter wheat belt could see up to 1.5" of scattered rain today with more over the weekend. The 6-10 day calls for wet weather in the northeast part of the belt. All this rain will slow early wheat harvesting. The Midwest will see rain today but dry weather is predicted the rest of the week. The eastern half of the belt will have up to 2" scattered rain Wed-Thur, with more forecast over the weekend, delaying late planting.---Vic Lespinasse
The USDA June crop report will be out tomorrow am and there will be a fair amount of evening up today ahead of this report.
The Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed 78% of the beans have been planted vs 87% average. Corn is 97% done against 99% average. Spring wheat is 96% complete vs 100% average. Emergence is 87% in corn vs 94% average. Beans are 55% emerged vs 70% average and spring wheat is 84% vs 97% average. Winter wheat harvesting reached 5% done vs 10% usually by this time in the season. Corn rated 69% good to excellent vs 70% last week. Spring wheat was 72% good to excellent vs 73% a week ago. Winter wheat came in at 44% good to excellent vs 45% last week.
Technicals: My reading of the daily bar charts suggests beans and meal are still headed higher as both these markets made new highs for the move yesterday with beans scoring a 9 month high. Wheat, corn, oil and oats, however, look like they turned bearish, at least for now. Of course, markets, like the weather, can be mercurial so we will be ready to change positions again on the close today, depending on market action. We never stay married to any position.
Argentine wheat areas are forecast to stay dry the next 7 days or so, stressing the crop. Chinese corn and bean areas have benefited from recent rain and are in good shape for the time being but more rain will be needed, of course, over coming weeks and months to keep the crop outlook favorable.
The US southwest winter wheat belt could see up to 1.5" of scattered rain today with more over the weekend. The 6-10 day calls for wet weather in the northeast part of the belt. All this rain will slow early wheat harvesting. The Midwest will see rain today but dry weather is predicted the rest of the week. The eastern half of the belt will have up to 2" scattered rain Wed-Thur, with more forecast over the weekend, delaying late planting.---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:41 AM
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