Outside Markets Bearish for Grains
A lower start is expected this am across the floor, similar to overnight losses. The $ index is higher while crude oil and the equity markets are lower, a bearish combination for all the grains. The early call is 10-15 down in wheat, 5-7 lower corn and 7-10 off in beans.
China's Commerce Ministry lowered its estimate for Chinese bean imports in May from 4.29 million tonnes to 3.96 million but they raised their May/June import guess from 8.4 million tonnes to 8.58 million, suggesting importers might defer some shipments from May to June. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry lowered their 2008-09 bean crop guess from 57.6 million tonnes in May to 57.1 million. They cut their May corn crop guess of 51.4 million tonnes to 49.9 million.
Wednesday morning the USDA June crop report will be out. I will have trade averages for this report shortly. Of course, the main USDA report this month will be the planted acreage estimates on June 30, which could move prices sharply that day.
Technicals: in my view, the daily bar charts all look bullish with the exception of wheat, which looks bearish. Last week, wheat ended lower for the week while all the rest of the grains finished the week higher. I am using technical analysis to evaluate these chart patterns. I am short wheat, long everything else this am.
Continued dry weather is forecast for Argentina's wheat belt this week, continuing to stress the crop. Much needed rain fell in the North China Plain over the weekend and welcome rain is predicted in northern Chinese growing areas this week, all of which will greatly benefit corn and beans in these two major growing areas.
The US northern plains spring wheat belt had up to 1" of unwanted weekend rain with more forecast today-tomorrow. Dry weather is forecast the second half of the week but the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain. The Midwest had up to 1.5" of rain in the west over the weekend with up to 1.5" forecast the next 3 days. Coverage should be widespread. More rain is possible late this week, all of which is welcome. The eastern half of the belt saw up to 1.25" over the weekend in the north with up to 1" more expected today. Up to 2" more rain is forecast Tue-Wed and none of this is welcome as farmers race to finish late corn and bean planting. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain. ---Vic Lespinasse
China's Commerce Ministry lowered its estimate for Chinese bean imports in May from 4.29 million tonnes to 3.96 million but they raised their May/June import guess from 8.4 million tonnes to 8.58 million, suggesting importers might defer some shipments from May to June. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry lowered their 2008-09 bean crop guess from 57.6 million tonnes in May to 57.1 million. They cut their May corn crop guess of 51.4 million tonnes to 49.9 million.
Wednesday morning the USDA June crop report will be out. I will have trade averages for this report shortly. Of course, the main USDA report this month will be the planted acreage estimates on June 30, which could move prices sharply that day.
Technicals: in my view, the daily bar charts all look bullish with the exception of wheat, which looks bearish. Last week, wheat ended lower for the week while all the rest of the grains finished the week higher. I am using technical analysis to evaluate these chart patterns. I am short wheat, long everything else this am.
Continued dry weather is forecast for Argentina's wheat belt this week, continuing to stress the crop. Much needed rain fell in the North China Plain over the weekend and welcome rain is predicted in northern Chinese growing areas this week, all of which will greatly benefit corn and beans in these two major growing areas.
The US northern plains spring wheat belt had up to 1" of unwanted weekend rain with more forecast today-tomorrow. Dry weather is forecast the second half of the week but the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain. The Midwest had up to 1.5" of rain in the west over the weekend with up to 1.5" forecast the next 3 days. Coverage should be widespread. More rain is possible late this week, all of which is welcome. The eastern half of the belt saw up to 1.25" over the weekend in the north with up to 1" more expected today. Up to 2" more rain is forecast Tue-Wed and none of this is welcome as farmers race to finish late corn and bean planting. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:31 AM
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