Outside Markets Friendly for Grains
A higher start is expected in all pits this am, roughly 10 in wheat and beans, 5 in corn. Crude oil and the equity markets are higher while the $ is a little lower, a friendly combination for all the grains.
Weekly export sales were in line for meal at 142,000 tonnes and wheat at 88,000 tonnes for the old crop year, which ended May 31, and 177,000 tonnes this crop year. The rest were slow: 604,000 tonnes of corn, minus 24,000 tonnes of old crop beans due to China cancelling 113,000 tonnes, only 60,000 tonnes of sales for the next crop year, starting Sep 1; and 3900 tonnes of oil. The Chinese cancellation was widely-anticipated and is already mostly in the market. The monthly oil stocks report this am showed 94 million lbs of bean oil was used to make bio diesel fuel in April down from 103 million lbs in March.
Some traders think yesterday's sell off was overdone like the weeks-long rally that preceded it. This could give the market a knee-jerk reaction to the upside today.
Technicals: In my view, the daily bar charts all turned bearish yesterday and I switched to the short side in all pits. Keep in mind I am a trend follower so when the market trends in either direction I do well but when they chop back and forth, higher one day, lower the next, etc, I, along with most trend followers, get beat up. I gave back a lot of profit in yesterday's huge sell off but still took substantial gains out of some pits, especially beans.
The western corn belt will stay mostly dry the next couple of days. Up to 2" or rain is forecast Sat-Mon. The eastern corn belt had up to .6" scattered rain yesterday. Mostly dry weather is likely the next few days but up to 1.5" of rain will return to the region Sun-Tue. This will be unwelcome as it will slow late planting of corn as well as beans. The 6-10 day calls for cool, wet weather, an unwelcome combination. The northern plains spring wheat region will be mostly dry the next couple of days but up to 2" of rain is likely Sat-Mon and the 6-10 day calls for cool, wet weather, which will be unwelcome. ---Vic Lespinasse
Weekly export sales were in line for meal at 142,000 tonnes and wheat at 88,000 tonnes for the old crop year, which ended May 31, and 177,000 tonnes this crop year. The rest were slow: 604,000 tonnes of corn, minus 24,000 tonnes of old crop beans due to China cancelling 113,000 tonnes, only 60,000 tonnes of sales for the next crop year, starting Sep 1; and 3900 tonnes of oil. The Chinese cancellation was widely-anticipated and is already mostly in the market. The monthly oil stocks report this am showed 94 million lbs of bean oil was used to make bio diesel fuel in April down from 103 million lbs in March.
Some traders think yesterday's sell off was overdone like the weeks-long rally that preceded it. This could give the market a knee-jerk reaction to the upside today.
Technicals: In my view, the daily bar charts all turned bearish yesterday and I switched to the short side in all pits. Keep in mind I am a trend follower so when the market trends in either direction I do well but when they chop back and forth, higher one day, lower the next, etc, I, along with most trend followers, get beat up. I gave back a lot of profit in yesterday's huge sell off but still took substantial gains out of some pits, especially beans.
The western corn belt will stay mostly dry the next couple of days. Up to 2" or rain is forecast Sat-Mon. The eastern corn belt had up to .6" scattered rain yesterday. Mostly dry weather is likely the next few days but up to 1.5" of rain will return to the region Sun-Tue. This will be unwelcome as it will slow late planting of corn as well as beans. The 6-10 day calls for cool, wet weather, an unwelcome combination. The northern plains spring wheat region will be mostly dry the next couple of days but up to 2" of rain is likely Sat-Mon and the 6-10 day calls for cool, wet weather, which will be unwelcome. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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