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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Tentative mixed to lower start expected in grains

A mixed to slightly lower start is tentatively expected this am. The early call is 5 down in wheat, steady corn and steady/2 better beans. The outside markets are mixed so they are not offering any guidance for the grains at this time. Traders will continue to watch them as the day progresses, especially the $, which could influence the grains significantly if it moves sharply either way.

Informa will put out their acreage guesses Friday at 10:30am, US Central time. The USDA acreage estimates, often a major influence on the market, will be out the morning of June 30.

There is a little talk China bought around 8 cargoes of South American beans so far this week, that's roughly 400-450,000 tonnes.

More unwelcome dry weather is predicted for the already severely-dry Argentine wheat belt the next several days or longer, making matters worse for the crop. More beneficial rain is forecast for China's main corn and bean growing areas this week. The Indian monsoon is starting to build strength and move north but it is still too far south for this time in the season. Welcome rain is now forecast over the coming week for the dry areas of the Canadian Prairies.

The US western Midwest will see up to 1.5" of welcome rain Thur-Fri with more possible Sun-Mon. The eastern half of the Midwest had up to 1.5" over the last 24 hours, which was welcome in areas planting is complete but not in areas that still need to finish planting. More is predicted Thur-Fri, up to 1.5" with yet more rain early next week. The southwest winter wheat belt will see light, scattered rain Thur-Sat but generally dry weather is predicted Sun-Mon and the 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, which will help harvesting speed up. The northern plains spring wheat belt will see light, scattered rain the next couple of days and again early next week. The 6-10 day calls for below normal rain.

We had a hugely profitable day Monday, a slightly profitable one yesterday and we hope to have another winning day today. ---Vic Lespinasse

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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