The USDA acreage report frequently has big surprises and this morning's version of the report was no exception! Corn acreage was 87.03 million, almost 3 million acres more than expected! Spring wheat was 13.77 million, almost 700,000 more acres than expected. Durum wheat acreage was 2.56 million, about 150,000 more acres than trade ideas while all wheat was 59.78 million, around 1.4 million acres more than trade estimates. Only beans were less than expected, 77.48 million, about 800,000 acres less than expected. Quarterly stocks were 4.266 million bushels for corn, about 80 million bushels higher than trade ideas. Beans were 597 million bushels, about 10 million bushels higher than thought while wheat was 667 million, in line with trade estimates. This report "found" several million of the "missing acres" from the March 31 Planting Intentions Report.

The early call is roughly 20-25 lower corn, 5-10 down in wheat and 5-10 up in beans. I suspect beans will not be up even that much as spillover selling from corn and wheat will restrain buying in beans. Of course, July beans (and July meal) are in their own universe and could continue going higher no matter what the rest of the floor does. Even if Jul goes lower, it should gain on the deferred months in both beans and meal. We are short all the grains except oats and I would stick with the short side today.

Link to this morning's full report (Report will open in a separate window)

The outside markets are a little higher in crude oil and equities while the $ index is a little lower but not enough to influence the grains significantly this am. It is the last trading day of the month and the quarter, which many traders think increases the fund's activity.

Deliveries were 6000 wheat and 5000 oil, both to June 29. There were no corn, bean or meal deliveries, as expected.

The Weekly Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed winter wheat rated 45% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. Harvesting is now 40% done vs 46% average. Spring wheat rated 76% good to excellent vs 77% average. It is well behind normal in development due to late planting this spring with only 15% of the crop headed (a stage of development) vs 40% normally for this time in the season. Corn improved to 72% good to excellent vs 70% last week. Silking (a measure of development) reached 4% vs 8% average. Beans were rated 68% good to excellent vs 67% last week. Emergence hit 91% vs 95% average. Bean planting is now 96% complete vs 98% average. Beans blooming (a measure of development) reached 5% vs 10% average. Corn and beans are both behind normal in development due to their late planting caused by the cool, wet spring this season.

Taiwan is in Thursday for 82,000 tonnes of US wheat.

Dry weather is expected to continue stressing the Argentine wheat crop the next 7 days or longer. It is hot and dry in the North China Plain and more of the same is forecast the next 5 days or so, stressing corn and beans. The Indian monsoon continues to improve with more welcome rain sweeping north the rest of this week, at least. Welcome rain is forecast this weekend in parts of Russia and the Ukraine where it will help the outlook for the corn crop. However, parts of the wheat growing region of Russia will remain mostly dry the next 7 days, increasing stress on this crop.

The US southwest winter wheat belt will see good harvest weather until up to 1.5" rain arrives Fri-Sun which will once again slow harvesting. Only light, scattered rain is forecast in the Midwest the next several days, with moderate temps as conditions remain very favorable for corn and beans.