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Thursday, June 11, 2009

Weekly export sales good for wheat, corn

A higher start is likely this am, 5 in wheat and corn, 10-12 in beans. The $ index is a little lower this am while crude oil is a shade better and equities are a little weaker. These outside markets will not be a factor for the grains this am unless they move sharply from their current levels.

Weekly export sales were good for wheat at 354,000 tonnes, and corn at 713,000 tonnes this crop year and 150,000 tonnes next crop year. The wheat crop year starts June 1. The weekly export sales report this am showed wheat sales of 985,000 tonnes but 631,000 tonnes of this was carried over from the old crop year, which ended May 31, to this crop year, making actual wheat sales 354,000 tonnes. Bean sales were minus 61,000 tonnes this crop year due to cancellations, and 280,000 tonnes next crop year. The next crop year for corn and beans starts Sep 1. Meal sales were in line at 70,000 tonnes old crop and 50,000 tonnes new crop. Oil sales were good at 6800 tonnes old crop and 3500 tonnes new crop. The new crop year for the products starts Oct 1.

South Korea passed on their tender for 275,000 tonnes of meal due to high prices.

Technicals: The daily bar charts still look very bullish for beans and meal, both of which have strong uptrends in place. Wheat still looks bearish, as does oil, while corn's chart could be viewed either way; it might be in a period of consolidation.

The outlook for the dry Argentine wheat fields remains unfavorable with more dry conditions forecast the next several days or longer, continuing to build stress for the crop. Good coverage of up to 1.5" rains was seen in northern Chinese corn and bean fields the last few days, benefiting crops there. Central Chinese growing areas will be mostly dry the next several days but rain is forecast by about Tuesday next week, which will be very welcome.

The southwest US winter wheat belt had up to 1.5" of rain yesterday and up to 1.5" more is forecast today-Saturday. Additional rain is forecast early next week. All this moisture will slow harvesting of the crop. The midwest will see light, scattered rain the next several days, extending into early next week. The eastern half of the belt had up to 1.5" overnight with more scattered around the region today-tomorrow. Additional rain is forecast early next week, all of which will keep late bean planting slow.

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