A sharply lower start is likely in all pits, roughly 30-35 down in beans, 10 lower in corn and 5-7 off in wheat. Two very bearish influences are weighing heavily on the market this am: very favorable US weather and very bearish outside markets. Either of these influences would be enough to drive the market sharply lower and combined they should keep prices on the defensive all day today. Crude oil is sharply lower, equities are down and the $ index is much higher, all bearish for the grains.

There were no deliveries again this am for beans or meal and none are likely ahead of expiration of these contracts Jul 14, which could keep Jul beans and meal relatively strong vs the other months. Deliveries reached 5000 today in wheat and 3900 in oil. Saudi Arabia said they bought 440,000 tonnes of wheat from the US, EU and Canada for Sep/Nov shipment.

Light, scattered rain is expected in the very dry Argentine wheat belt today but below normal rain is predicted the next 10 days, keeping the crop in poor shape. The North China Plain will see welcome rain mid-week. The Indian monsoon is forecast to move further north later this week, bringing much needed rain to dry areas as it advances. No rain is forecast in parts of Russia's spring wheat belt the next 7 days.

Up to 1.25" of scattered rain fell in the US Midwest over the long holiday weekend with scattered rain forecast this week, keeping conditions very good overall. Currently, there is no hot and dry weather threat in sight. The southwest winter wheat belt saw some harvest delays over the weekend with up to 1" of rain scattered over the region. Better harvest weather is forecast this week. The delta saw much needed rain over the weekend, up to 1 with around 55% coverage. More scattered rain is possible today.