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Friday, July 10, 2009

Outside markets negative influence on grains

Prices were mixed to mostly a little lower in overnight trading but this can be ignored as the market will react to the USDA numbers this am, ignoring overnight trading. The market won't ignore the outside markets, which are a negative influence for the grains this am. Crude oil is lower, as are equities, while the $ is higher.

There were still no deliveries in corn, beans or meal, as expected. Last trading day for the Jul contracts is next Tuesday. Wheat deliveries totaled 1100 contracts with 1750 oil delivered. The only commercial feature was Bunge delivering 200 wheat.

China's Customs Office reported June bean imports at a record 4.71 million tonnes. The first 6 months of the year, bean imports reached just over 22 million tonnes, up 28% vs the first 6 months of last year.

Monsoon rains are predicted in bean growing areas of India the next several days but the monsoon has been disappointing so far this season and India's Farm Minister said poor monsoon rains in the north of the country are a serious problem so traders will continue watching developments there. Relief in the form of cooler temps and scattered rain is forecast for Russia's spring wheat belt the next 5-7 days but it remains too dry in parts of the Ukraine and southern Russia where corn is grown.

The US northern plains spring wheat belt continues to enjoy very good growing weather with more rain expected early next week. The southwest winter wheat belt could see some harvest delays in the north from scattered rain the next 5 days or more. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the northern part of the belt, where harvesting is going on. The Midwest corn and bean belt is forecast to continue benefiting from very good growing conditions, no extreme heat and ongoing scattered rain every few days. The 6-10 day calls for more of the same. ---Vic Lespinasse

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