Outside markets/overnights point grains lower but Export Sales bullish
Prices were lower overnight and the outside markets point the grains lower as well this am, as does the bearish US weather forecast. However, the Weekly Export Sales report was bullish this am, as were 2 USDA sales announcements so I doubt we will be as weak this am as we were overnight. Crude oil and the equity markets are lower while the $ index is higher, a bearish combination for all the grains.
There were no deliveries again this am against beans, meal or corn. Wheat and oil deliveries both totaled 4800.
Weekly Export Sales were a bit on the light side for wheat at 242,000 tonnes. Corn was very good at 1.155 million tonnes this crop year and 117,000 tonnes next crop year. Beans were very good also at 193,000 tonnes old crop and 250,000 tonnes new crop. Meal was minus 23,000 tonnes old crop due to cancellations but new crop sales were great at 304,000 tonnes. Oil sales were also very good at 69,000 tonnes.
The USDA had some pre-Fourth of July fireworks for the bean market: They announced China was a huge buyer of 660,000 tonnes of US beans this am for the 2009-10 crop year, which starts Sep 1. This is the largest single bean sale in recent memory. The USDA also announced the sale of 152,000 tonnes of US corn to an unknown destination for the 2009-10 crop year.
The Indian Meteorological Dep't said monsoon rains were 29% below average for the week ended July1 and 46% below average for June 1-July 1. The monsoon has shown some signs of improvement in the last few days but it is still well below normal, perhaps due to the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean. Traders will continue watching this situation closely.
More dry weather is forecast for the already drought stressed Argentine wheat crop the next 7 days or longer. Hot and dry weather continues in the North China Plain, stressing crops there, especially corn. Continued dry weather in Russia's spring wheat belt is a concern with more of the same forecast the next 7 days.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will see some harvest delays due to weekend rain. Good growing weather is forecast to continue in the northern plains spring wheat belt. The Delta has been too hot and dry recently but cooler, wetter weather is forecast there this weekend, which will be welcome. The Midwest will see more beneficial growing weather with up to 1.5" of scattered rain forecast this weekend. Any high pressure ridge that might move into the belt later next week is currently not expected to last more than a few days, not long enough to do any damage from hot/dry weather. ---Vic Lespinasse
There were no deliveries again this am against beans, meal or corn. Wheat and oil deliveries both totaled 4800.
Weekly Export Sales were a bit on the light side for wheat at 242,000 tonnes. Corn was very good at 1.155 million tonnes this crop year and 117,000 tonnes next crop year. Beans were very good also at 193,000 tonnes old crop and 250,000 tonnes new crop. Meal was minus 23,000 tonnes old crop due to cancellations but new crop sales were great at 304,000 tonnes. Oil sales were also very good at 69,000 tonnes.
The USDA had some pre-Fourth of July fireworks for the bean market: They announced China was a huge buyer of 660,000 tonnes of US beans this am for the 2009-10 crop year, which starts Sep 1. This is the largest single bean sale in recent memory. The USDA also announced the sale of 152,000 tonnes of US corn to an unknown destination for the 2009-10 crop year.
The Indian Meteorological Dep't said monsoon rains were 29% below average for the week ended July1 and 46% below average for June 1-July 1. The monsoon has shown some signs of improvement in the last few days but it is still well below normal, perhaps due to the El Nino weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean. Traders will continue watching this situation closely.
More dry weather is forecast for the already drought stressed Argentine wheat crop the next 7 days or longer. Hot and dry weather continues in the North China Plain, stressing crops there, especially corn. Continued dry weather in Russia's spring wheat belt is a concern with more of the same forecast the next 7 days.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will see some harvest delays due to weekend rain. Good growing weather is forecast to continue in the northern plains spring wheat belt. The Delta has been too hot and dry recently but cooler, wetter weather is forecast there this weekend, which will be welcome. The Midwest will see more beneficial growing weather with up to 1.5" of scattered rain forecast this weekend. Any high pressure ridge that might move into the belt later next week is currently not expected to last more than a few days, not long enough to do any damage from hot/dry weather. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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