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Thursday, July 23, 2009

USDA to update corn acreage

A higher start is expected in all pits, led by corn. The USDA announced yesterday that they will update corn acreage for their August 12 crop production report. This will almost certainly show lower corn acreage, the only question being by how much. This pushed corn prices higher overnight and helped pull wheat and beans higher as well. Corn and beans are both called 7-10 higher this am while wheat is expected 3-5 better.

China's 500,000 bean auction had no bids according to early reports, which isn't a surprise given the above-market price the government wanted. It is widely thought the government will have to subsidize crushers (processors) to get them to buy government-owned beans instead of cheaper imported beans.

The Census Bureau June crush report showed a crush of 140.2 million bushels with oil stocks 3.403 billion lbs and meal stocks 417,900 short tons. This report was a little friendly for beans, neutral for the products.

Weekly export sales this am were 342,000 tonnes for wheat, 758,000 tonnes old crop and 577,000 tonne new crop corn, 320,000 tonnes old crop and 382,000 tonnes new crop beans, 158,000 tonnes old crop and 35,000 tonnes new crop meal along with 17,000 tonnes old crop and minus 6000 tonnes new crop (due to cancellations) oil. Wheat sales were toward the low end of trade ideas and oil sales were much less than expected, only 11,000 tonnes net between the old and new crop years. Corn, bean and meal sales were all better than expected. Included in the bean sales were 158,000 tonnes of old crop and 115,000 tonnes of new crop to China.

The Indian Meteorological Dep't reported monsoon rains were 15% above normal for the week ended July 22, the second week in a row of above normal rain. Since the start of the monsoon season on June 1, rains are still 19% below normal.

The US Midwest will remain on the cool side the rest of this week and next week as well, according to the latest 6-10 day outlook, keeping heat stress out of the picture for corn and beans. Only light, scattered rain is forecast in the western half of the belt the rest of this week into next but the east will see more rain the next few days as well as early next week. Overall, conditions remain very favorable for crop development although more rain would be welcome in the northwest part of the region as well as in the western half of the northern plains spring wheat belt. ---Vic Lespinasse

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