Weekly Crop Progress figures; weather concerns for grains
A lower start is likely this am, about 3-4 wheat, 1-3 corn and 7-10 beans. Equities and crude oil are higher this am while the $ index is slightly lower, a friendly combination for all the grains but probably not enough to influence grain prices strongly.
The Weekly Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon showed some improvement in the condition of beans at 67% good to excellent vs 66% last week, and spring wheat at 73% vs 71%. Corn was unchanged at 71%. Crop development remains well behind normal due to late planting this spring with corn silking only 31% done vs 54% average, beans blooming just 44% vs 62% average and spring wheat headed 84% vs 93% normally for this time of year.
Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat this am with results due shortly before our opening. Depending on what Egypt does, this could impact opening prices in wheat.
Some much needed rain fell in the very dry Argentine wheat belt over the last 24 hours but much more will be needed over coming weeks and months to ensure even a fair sized crop. There is little rain in the forecast for dry areas of the Russian spring wheat belt the next 7-10 days. Growing conditions remain mostly very favorable in the main Chinese grain areas with more of the same expected.
The US Delta had scattered rain the last 24 hours with more forecast today-tomorrow and again this coming weekend, improving crop conditions. The Midwest will benefit from scattered rain the next several days, ending around Friday in the west, Saturday in the east. The 6-10 day calls for more beneficial weather with cool temps, preventing any heat stress for developing corn and beans. Rainfall will be below normal in the northwest, above in the southeast. Some weather forecasters, such as Drew Lerner at World Weather, are predicting a cooler than normal summer in the Midwest, which certainly has been the case up to this point. Lerner mentions the absence of sun spot acitivity as a possible cause for this cooler than usual pattern. In today's New York Times, section D, page 1, there is a big article about the absence of sun spot activity this year. This article also links the absence of sun spot activity to the cooler than usual temps we are having this summer. A cooler than usual summer is important because cool summers often result in above normal crop yields. In 1994, for example, we had a cool summer in the Midwest and record corn and bean yields that stood for many years to come. This would be bearish for prices, of course. On the other hand, some think a cool summer increases the chances of an early frost. Given the slow pace of development for corn and beans this season, an early frost would do more damage than usual, which would be very bullish for prices. As is often the case, it is too early to determine what the outcome will be but this could make for big market moves over coming weeks and months. ---Vic Lespinasse
The Weekly Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon showed some improvement in the condition of beans at 67% good to excellent vs 66% last week, and spring wheat at 73% vs 71%. Corn was unchanged at 71%. Crop development remains well behind normal due to late planting this spring with corn silking only 31% done vs 54% average, beans blooming just 44% vs 62% average and spring wheat headed 84% vs 93% normally for this time of year.
Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat this am with results due shortly before our opening. Depending on what Egypt does, this could impact opening prices in wheat.
Some much needed rain fell in the very dry Argentine wheat belt over the last 24 hours but much more will be needed over coming weeks and months to ensure even a fair sized crop. There is little rain in the forecast for dry areas of the Russian spring wheat belt the next 7-10 days. Growing conditions remain mostly very favorable in the main Chinese grain areas with more of the same expected.
The US Delta had scattered rain the last 24 hours with more forecast today-tomorrow and again this coming weekend, improving crop conditions. The Midwest will benefit from scattered rain the next several days, ending around Friday in the west, Saturday in the east. The 6-10 day calls for more beneficial weather with cool temps, preventing any heat stress for developing corn and beans. Rainfall will be below normal in the northwest, above in the southeast. Some weather forecasters, such as Drew Lerner at World Weather, are predicting a cooler than normal summer in the Midwest, which certainly has been the case up to this point. Lerner mentions the absence of sun spot acitivity as a possible cause for this cooler than usual pattern. In today's New York Times, section D, page 1, there is a big article about the absence of sun spot activity this year. This article also links the absence of sun spot activity to the cooler than usual temps we are having this summer. A cooler than usual summer is important because cool summers often result in above normal crop yields. In 1994, for example, we had a cool summer in the Midwest and record corn and bean yields that stood for many years to come. This would be bearish for prices, of course. On the other hand, some think a cool summer increases the chances of an early frost. Given the slow pace of development for corn and beans this season, an early frost would do more damage than usual, which would be very bullish for prices. As is often the case, it is too early to determine what the outcome will be but this could make for big market moves over coming weeks and months. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:27 AM
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