Better grains start expected despite lack of fresh news
A better start is forecast this am, around 3-4 up in wheat and corn, 10 higher in beans. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news so far this am.
3200 oil was delivered to Aug 4 with no big commercial stoppers. Informa will put out their Aug production estimates at 10:30am US Central time. Usually, their numbers don't move the market significantly. China conducted their 3rd bean auction today, selling only 4900 tonnes of the 500,000 tonnes offered. While they sold less than 1% of what they offered, it was more than the previous attempts, when nothing was sold. If bean prices keep rising, future auctions should be more successful.
Monsoon rains in India remain poor, currently falling mostly just in the northeast part of the country. There is a chance for improved monsoon rain in central Indian bean fields early next week but crops in western parts of the country, including important groundnut areas, are forecast to remain dry, as are sugar cane areas, increasing stress on these crops. Conditions in the major Chinese grain areas remain mostly favorable.
The US delta has had good rains lately but a warmer and drier weather pattern is forecast to move into the region, which could deplete soil moisture rapidly. The Midwest is expecting up to 1.5" more beneficial rain the next few days, after up to 1.5" fell in eastern parts of the belt yesterday. More rain is predicted early next week as well, Sun-Mon in the west, Mon-Tue in the east, also up to 1.5". Temps are forecast to heat up over the weekend. The 6-10 day forecast calls for hotter and wetter than normal weather. There is a lot of concern, reflected by mostly higher grain prices since last Thursday, that the hotter temps moving into the Midwest starting this weekend will mark a lasting change in the cool weather pattern we have seen so far this season. IF this hotter weather only lasts a few days, it will be beneficial for developing corn and bean crops, helping speed their maturity, which remains well behind normal. However, IF this hotter weather persists beyond a few days, it could start stressing the crops as they go through their most weather-sensitive period. It appears this long-lasting hot weather threat is minor but the market is still very nervous about it, adding a weather premium to prices since last Thursday. I do not think this threat is serious but the charts still look bullish and I never argue with the market, which "knows" a lot more than me or anyone else. ---Vic Lespinasse
3200 oil was delivered to Aug 4 with no big commercial stoppers. Informa will put out their Aug production estimates at 10:30am US Central time. Usually, their numbers don't move the market significantly. China conducted their 3rd bean auction today, selling only 4900 tonnes of the 500,000 tonnes offered. While they sold less than 1% of what they offered, it was more than the previous attempts, when nothing was sold. If bean prices keep rising, future auctions should be more successful.
Monsoon rains in India remain poor, currently falling mostly just in the northeast part of the country. There is a chance for improved monsoon rain in central Indian bean fields early next week but crops in western parts of the country, including important groundnut areas, are forecast to remain dry, as are sugar cane areas, increasing stress on these crops. Conditions in the major Chinese grain areas remain mostly favorable.
The US delta has had good rains lately but a warmer and drier weather pattern is forecast to move into the region, which could deplete soil moisture rapidly. The Midwest is expecting up to 1.5" more beneficial rain the next few days, after up to 1.5" fell in eastern parts of the belt yesterday. More rain is predicted early next week as well, Sun-Mon in the west, Mon-Tue in the east, also up to 1.5". Temps are forecast to heat up over the weekend. The 6-10 day forecast calls for hotter and wetter than normal weather. There is a lot of concern, reflected by mostly higher grain prices since last Thursday, that the hotter temps moving into the Midwest starting this weekend will mark a lasting change in the cool weather pattern we have seen so far this season. IF this hotter weather only lasts a few days, it will be beneficial for developing corn and bean crops, helping speed their maturity, which remains well behind normal. However, IF this hotter weather persists beyond a few days, it could start stressing the crops as they go through their most weather-sensitive period. It appears this long-lasting hot weather threat is minor but the market is still very nervous about it, adding a weather premium to prices since last Thursday. I do not think this threat is serious but the charts still look bullish and I never argue with the market, which "knows" a lot more than me or anyone else. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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