Crude, equities higher; $ lower: Higher grains start expected
A higher start is expected in all pits, 3-5 wheat and corn, 20 beans, following overnight gains. Crude oil and the equity markets are higher this am while the $ index is lower, often a prescription for higher grain prices.
Stats Canada estimated their all wheat crop at 23.61 million tonnes, durum wheat at 4.52 million, oats at 2.97 million, canola at 9.54 million and barley at 8.95 million. The all wheat number was a little higher than expected, as was the oats estimate but the canola guess was a bit lower than trade ideas, which could lend a little support to our bean oil market.
For the 5th day in a row, China bought US beans, taking 233,000 tonnes today, a total of 896,000 tonnes for the week! This continued Chinese presence in our bean market should lend support to this pit this am.
India's Weather Department is forecasting little rain outside of the eastern and northeastern parts of the country the next 5 days, which will stress the major growing areas, most of which are located outside of these two regions. However, some forecasters, such as Meteorologix Weather, see rain returning to central and possibly northwest parts of the country, where it is most needed, by the middle of next week. There is a growing need for rain in northern New South Wales and Queensland states in Australia for the wheat crop but little is forecast there the next 7 days, possibly due to the influence of El Niño, which has been strengthening lately.
The US Midwest saw light rain in the east the last 24 hours with mostly dry weather in the west. More of the same is forecast in both the west and east today-Monday with rain possible Tue-Wed. I have seen two different weather forecasters's outlooks this am for the 6-10 day forecast. They both see a chance for below normal temps in the east but above normal in the west during this time frame. Despite these mixed forecasts, many traders on and off the floor this am are talking up the prospect of cooler temps in the 6-10 day period and that somehow this will raise the likelihood of an early freeze in the Midwest. This might well turn out to be the case but I don't see how this kind of talk is justified by the forecasts I have seen so far this am. Still, many times the market acts on half right or even wrong perceptions but I don't want to stand in its way, right or wrong because oftentimes the market "knows" things any one individual does not. ---Vic Lespinasse
Stats Canada estimated their all wheat crop at 23.61 million tonnes, durum wheat at 4.52 million, oats at 2.97 million, canola at 9.54 million and barley at 8.95 million. The all wheat number was a little higher than expected, as was the oats estimate but the canola guess was a bit lower than trade ideas, which could lend a little support to our bean oil market.
For the 5th day in a row, China bought US beans, taking 233,000 tonnes today, a total of 896,000 tonnes for the week! This continued Chinese presence in our bean market should lend support to this pit this am.
India's Weather Department is forecasting little rain outside of the eastern and northeastern parts of the country the next 5 days, which will stress the major growing areas, most of which are located outside of these two regions. However, some forecasters, such as Meteorologix Weather, see rain returning to central and possibly northwest parts of the country, where it is most needed, by the middle of next week. There is a growing need for rain in northern New South Wales and Queensland states in Australia for the wheat crop but little is forecast there the next 7 days, possibly due to the influence of El Niño, which has been strengthening lately.
The US Midwest saw light rain in the east the last 24 hours with mostly dry weather in the west. More of the same is forecast in both the west and east today-Monday with rain possible Tue-Wed. I have seen two different weather forecasters's outlooks this am for the 6-10 day forecast. They both see a chance for below normal temps in the east but above normal in the west during this time frame. Despite these mixed forecasts, many traders on and off the floor this am are talking up the prospect of cooler temps in the 6-10 day period and that somehow this will raise the likelihood of an early freeze in the Midwest. This might well turn out to be the case but I don't see how this kind of talk is justified by the forecasts I have seen so far this am. Still, many times the market acts on half right or even wrong perceptions but I don't want to stand in its way, right or wrong because oftentimes the market "knows" things any one individual does not. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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