Higher grains start forecast across the floor
A higher start is forecast across the floor, about 5 in wheat and corn, 20 in beans. Crude oil and equities are much higher while the $ index is lower, a bullish combination for all the grains. Malaysian palm oil jumped 55 ringgit today amid indications of continued strong Indian vegetable oil import demand.
South Korea bought 110,000 tonnes of US corn. Weekly export sales this am were good for wheat at 479,000 tonnes, and beans at 259,000 tonnes old crop along with 762,000 tonnes new crop. Corn sales were slow at 541,000 tonnes old crop and 292,000 tonnes new crop. Product sales were also slow at 41,000 tonnes old crop meal, 15,000 tonnes new crop meal and 5000 tonnes oil.
Stratagie Grains, the widely-followed French analytical firm, upped its 2009-10 EU soft wheat crop guess from 126.5 million tonnes last month to 130 million today.They boosted their total EU grain crop guess for the 2009-10 crop year to 289 million tonnes vs 283 million last month.
The head of India's Meteorological Dep't said the monsoon situation is "grim". For the week ended Aug 12, monsoon rains were 56% below normal. However, very heavy rain was seen in the bean region of central India and more beneficial rain is forecast the next 5 days in the bean and sugar cane growing areas of the country. The northwest part of the country, the major ground nut region, is forecast to remain on the dry side, increasing stress on crops there.
The US Midwest was dry yesterday and more of the same is likely until Sun-Tues, when rain will move across the western half of the belt, bringing up to 1.5". Up to 1" of rain is predicted in the eastern half of the belt Mon-Wed. The 6-10 day calls for normal rain. This is a bearish forecast for corn and bean prices but the market seems to be discounting it, rallying yesterday and again overnight. Certainly, the rally in crude oil and equities and the sell off in the $ yesterday encouraged buying in the grains as these outside markets were signaling a potential worldwide economic recovery, which would be bullish for all commodities, including grains. The same pattern seems ready to repeat again today.
We will roll our wheat position into DEC at the next reversal.
South Korea bought 110,000 tonnes of US corn. Weekly export sales this am were good for wheat at 479,000 tonnes, and beans at 259,000 tonnes old crop along with 762,000 tonnes new crop. Corn sales were slow at 541,000 tonnes old crop and 292,000 tonnes new crop. Product sales were also slow at 41,000 tonnes old crop meal, 15,000 tonnes new crop meal and 5000 tonnes oil.
Stratagie Grains, the widely-followed French analytical firm, upped its 2009-10 EU soft wheat crop guess from 126.5 million tonnes last month to 130 million today.They boosted their total EU grain crop guess for the 2009-10 crop year to 289 million tonnes vs 283 million last month.
The head of India's Meteorological Dep't said the monsoon situation is "grim". For the week ended Aug 12, monsoon rains were 56% below normal. However, very heavy rain was seen in the bean region of central India and more beneficial rain is forecast the next 5 days in the bean and sugar cane growing areas of the country. The northwest part of the country, the major ground nut region, is forecast to remain on the dry side, increasing stress on crops there.
The US Midwest was dry yesterday and more of the same is likely until Sun-Tues, when rain will move across the western half of the belt, bringing up to 1.5". Up to 1" of rain is predicted in the eastern half of the belt Mon-Wed. The 6-10 day calls for normal rain. This is a bearish forecast for corn and bean prices but the market seems to be discounting it, rallying yesterday and again overnight. Certainly, the rally in crude oil and equities and the sell off in the $ yesterday encouraged buying in the grains as these outside markets were signaling a potential worldwide economic recovery, which would be bullish for all commodities, including grains. The same pattern seems ready to repeat again today.
We will roll our wheat position into DEC at the next reversal.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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