A higher start is indicated this am, around 2 cents in wheat and corn, 15-20 in beans. Crude oil and equities are a little higher this am but so is the $ so these outside markets shouldn't have much impact on the grain market unless they move much more decisively later in the day.

The Pro Farmer crop tour estimates are roughly in line with the Aug USDA guesses and are not expected to have much impact on the market today. Pro Farmer estimated the US corn crop at 12.807 billion bushels with a yield of 160.1 bushels per acre. Their bean guess was 3.150 billion with a yield of 41. The August USDA estimates were 12.761 billion bushels of corn with a yield of 159.5. The USDA bean guess was 3.199 billion with a yield of 41.7.

Reports continue circulating from China about serious drought hurting crop prospects in at least two of China's main grain growing provinces: Jilin, which accounts for about 13% of China's total grain crop, and Heilongjiang, which produces around 40% of China's bean crop. China's buying a total of 896,000 tonnes of US beans last week underscores this bullish (for prices) weather situation.

There is some much needed rain in the forecast for the main Chinese growing regions this week, according to Meteorologix Weather. There is still a growing need for more rain in parts of Australia's wheat belt, specifically Queensland and northern New South Wales. These two states would likely be stricken by drought should El Nino continue to strengthen over coming weeks and months.

The US Midwest was mostly dry over the weekend. Up to 1.5" of rain is forecast Tue-Wed in the west with more possible Thursday. The eastern half of the belt will see rain the second half of the week, helping keep conditions favorable although corn and beans remain well behind normal in development.

The Weekly Crop Progress report will be out this afternoon at 3pm US Central time, showing how far behind development of the crops remains. ---Vic Lespinasse