A lower start is expected in all pits, roughly 5 in wheat, 2-3 corn and 10-15 beans. Crude oil is slightly lower, equities a little better and the $ a shade higher so these outside markets are not expected to impact the direction of the grains unless they move decisively from here.

Weekly export sales were all strong except meal, which was less than expected. Wheat sales were 553,000 tonnes, corn was 423,000 tonnes old crop and 729,000 tonnes new crop, bean sales were 494,000 tonnes old and 2.41 million tonnes new, meal sales were minus 58,000 tonnes old due to cancellations but 160,000 tonnes new for a net of 102,000 tonnes, and 81,000 tonnes of oil. Japan bought 106,000 tonnes of US wheat at their weekly tender.

Conab, a division of the Brazilian Agricultural Ministry, raised their 2008-09 corn production estimate from last month's 49.45 million tonnes to 50.27 million. They increased their wheat production guess from 5.67 million tonnes to 5.85 million and left their bean crop guess unchanged at 57.12 million tonnes.

The Indian Meteorological Dep't said monsoon rains were 64% below normal in the week ended Aug 5 and they were 25% less than average for the period Jun 1 to Aug 4. They expect better rain in central India, a major bean growing area, within 2-3 days. Improved monsoon rains are forecast elsewhere in India by early next week, which will be very welcome.

The US Midwest will see beneficial rain over much of the region the next couple of days, followed by drier and hot weather this weekend. The heat isn't expected to last more than a few days at most and more beneficial rain is predicted early next week over much of the belt. This is a very favorable weather outlook, weighing on prices overnight. Judging by the way the market acted overnight and the lower call this am, worries about lingering heat in the Midwest and drier conditions seem to have dried up, pardon the pun! ---Vic Lespinasse