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Monday, August 10, 2009

Market may wait for Wednesday USDA report

A mixed start is expected this am, likely steady/easier wheat and corn, steady/better beans. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news this am so many traders will be content to wait for what is likely to be the big event of the week, Wednesday morning's USDA crop report. The outside markets are mixed this am, not providing much guidance for the grains.

The USDA announced Egypt bought 60,000 tonnes each of old crop and new crop US corn.

Here are the latest trade estimates for the USDA report: 12.502 billion bushels of corn, 3.219 billion beans, 2.151 billion all wheat, 1.531 billion winter wheat, 526 million spring wheat and 85 million durum wheat. Traders expect a corn yield of 157.3 bushels per acre with beans 42.13.

The Indian monsoon rains remain poor but some improvement is expected by midweek in the main bean and sugar cane growing areas. The general director of India's Meteorological Dep't now expects monsoon rains to fall 13-15% under the 50 year average vs earlier expectations of only a 7% decline.

Here in the US Midwest, weekend rains in a few parts of the western half of the belt reached as much as 2.5" along with hot temps. The eastern half of the belt saw up to 1.5" in a few areas during this time. Light rain is forecast in the west today-tomorrow with mostly dry weather the second half of the week. The eastern half of the belt will see scattered rain today and tomorrow, up to 3/4" in some areas. Dry weather is likely to be the rule the second half of the week. Temps will be warmer but no heat stress is expected. ---Vic Lespinasse

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