Cold weather threat to grains recedes
A lower start is indicated this am, around 3 wheat, 5 corn and 10 beans. Crude oil is a little lower and the $ a shade better this am, neither of which is supportive for the grains.
The main reason for the lower call is the lack of any cold weather threat next week or beyond, which would allow corn and beans to continue late development, very possibily resulting in record large harvests for both. Following the old saying that "big crops get bigger" many traders expect a higher USDA October crop production guess for corn and beans on Oct 9 IF we don't get an early season-ending freeze. The fear of an early freeze drove prices sharply higher Tuesday just as the reduced freeze threat in yesterday's forecast took prices lower and a lower start is expected this am as the freeze threat continues to recede in this morning's forecast. Of course, the weather, like the market, can be fickle and the forecast could easily change again by early next week or even tomorrow but for now the lack of any freezing temps in the near or longer term outlook should weigh on prices.
The vice president of COFCO, one of only two authorized Chinese corn exporters (Jilin is the other), estimated the Chinese corn crop at about 148 million tonnes vs last year's crop of 160 and recent estimates of as much as 165 million tonnes for this year. Drought is the reason for the much smaller crop. The COFCO vp also said he doesn't think China will need to import corn for several years as the country has huge reserve stocks, currently estimated at least 35 million tonnes.
Weekly Export Sales were out this am: 449,000 tonnes of wheat; 966,000 tonnes of corn; 489,000 tonnes of old crop beans and 215,000 tonnes of new crop beans; 43,000 tonnes old crop meal and 72,000 tonnes new crop meal and 30,000 tonnes old crop oil but minus 17,000 tonnes of new crop oil due to cancellations. Corn sales were better than expected with the rest roughly in line with trade estimates. The USDA announced this am the sale of 121,000 tonnes of US beans to China.
Very favorable dry harvest weather is predicted in the northern plains spring wheat belt the next 7 days. The southwest winter wheat belt had some isolated rain in the east yesterday. More scattered rain is forecast today-tomorrow. Better rain is predicted early next week. The Midwest will see mostly dry conditions and warm temps the rest of this week into the weekend. Light, scattered rain is forecast late this weekend-early next week, along with continued warm temps. ---Vic Lespinasse
The main reason for the lower call is the lack of any cold weather threat next week or beyond, which would allow corn and beans to continue late development, very possibily resulting in record large harvests for both. Following the old saying that "big crops get bigger" many traders expect a higher USDA October crop production guess for corn and beans on Oct 9 IF we don't get an early season-ending freeze. The fear of an early freeze drove prices sharply higher Tuesday just as the reduced freeze threat in yesterday's forecast took prices lower and a lower start is expected this am as the freeze threat continues to recede in this morning's forecast. Of course, the weather, like the market, can be fickle and the forecast could easily change again by early next week or even tomorrow but for now the lack of any freezing temps in the near or longer term outlook should weigh on prices.
The vice president of COFCO, one of only two authorized Chinese corn exporters (Jilin is the other), estimated the Chinese corn crop at about 148 million tonnes vs last year's crop of 160 and recent estimates of as much as 165 million tonnes for this year. Drought is the reason for the much smaller crop. The COFCO vp also said he doesn't think China will need to import corn for several years as the country has huge reserve stocks, currently estimated at least 35 million tonnes.
Weekly Export Sales were out this am: 449,000 tonnes of wheat; 966,000 tonnes of corn; 489,000 tonnes of old crop beans and 215,000 tonnes of new crop beans; 43,000 tonnes old crop meal and 72,000 tonnes new crop meal and 30,000 tonnes old crop oil but minus 17,000 tonnes of new crop oil due to cancellations. Corn sales were better than expected with the rest roughly in line with trade estimates. The USDA announced this am the sale of 121,000 tonnes of US beans to China.
Very favorable dry harvest weather is predicted in the northern plains spring wheat belt the next 7 days. The southwest winter wheat belt had some isolated rain in the east yesterday. More scattered rain is forecast today-tomorrow. Better rain is predicted early next week. The Midwest will see mostly dry conditions and warm temps the rest of this week into the weekend. Light, scattered rain is forecast late this weekend-early next week, along with continued warm temps. ---Vic Lespinasse
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home