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Friday, September 25, 2009

Lower Grains Start Forecast

A lower start is forecast this am, around 1 in wheat and corn, 3 in beans. Crude oil, equities and the $ haven't changed enough to impact the grains much this am, although this could change later in the session.

The USDA announced the sale of 27,000 tonnes of US bean oil to an unknown destination, likely China or India. There isn't a lot of other news yet this am to influence prices. The grains have diverged in price so far this week with the bean complex lower since last Friday's close while corn and wheat are higher since then. Technically, it appears this trend will continue, judging by the daily charts.

A freeze threat continues in eastern Australian wheat areas late this weekend into early next week.

The US Midwest will remain mild until early next week, when temps will dip but any freeze threat is thought to be minimal at this time. Rain in the western half of the Midwest today and again next week could delay early corn and bean harvesting. The delta will see more bean harvest delaying rains today, followed by drier conditions. However, more unwelcome rain is possible next week.

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