Another mostly lower start is likely across the floor this am, down 3-5 in corn and beans but steady/easier. Crude oil is a little lower while the $ index is a little higher, not enough to have much influence on the grains but this combination certainly won't encourage any buying in the grains. There is very little fresh news this am outside of the weather. It is Friday and assuming we trade lower today due to the bearish weather forecast (see below) some traders might want to cover shorts ahead of the weekend as the forecast could change between today's close and Monday's opening. This might bring some support into the market late today, as we saw in beans late yesterday. Speaking of yesterday, many traders are still wondering why beans were so strong yesterday relative to corn but no clear cut explantion has yet emerged.

Up to .8" welcome rain has fallen the last few days in eastern Australian wheat areas and up to 2" more is forecast the first half of next week. This will greatly benefit the wheat crop in the east. The Indian monsoon continues to withdraw prematurely from northwest India, leaving crops in this area hot and dry. No hard freeze (28 degrees or lower for 2 hours or more) has been seen in most of the Canadian Prairies so far this month and none is currently forecast, allowing crops to continue late season development.

Good harvest conditions are forecast for the US northern plains spring wheat belt the next 7 days. Rain in the delta is possible the next couple of days and again next week, slowing early bean harvesting. The southwest winter wheat belt will be dry the next few days but rain is forecast the first half of next week. The Midwest will remain mostly warm and dry the next few days. Rain is predicted late this weekend into early next week in parts of the belt but there is no freeze threat in sight for as much as the next two weeks. If correct, this will allow corn and beans to complete developing and should ensure a larger USDA production guess in their next report, Oct 9. ---Vic Lespinasse