A lower start is likely this am, roughly 2 in wheat and corn, 5-10 in beans. The outside markets are mixed with only small changes currently and not expected to influence the grains unless they move sharply in either direction from here. The first corn deliveries of the month were seen this am, 200 lots to Jul 13. There were 4400 wheat and 2900 oil to Sep 1 but still no beans or meal.

China auctioned only 10,600 tonnes of beans today out of 500,000 tonnes offered. The government announced they will subsidize crushers in Heilongjiang province, the largest bean producing province in the country, for 2 million tonnes of beans. However, due to the fall in bean prices, the subsidy, 200 yuan, isn't enough as it is still cheaper to import beans than buy them at the government auctions.

FC Stone estimated the US corn crop at 13.02 billion bushels with a yield of 162.7 bushels per acre. There bean guess was 3.266 billion bushels with a yield of 42.6. These estimates were considered bearish for prices as the USDA currently is 12.761 billion bushels for corn with a yield of 159.5 and 3.199 billion beans with a yield of 41.7. The Sep USDA estimates will be out the morning of Sep 11. Most traders expect the USDA to raise their guesses in this report due to the ongoing very favorable weather over the last month in most of the belt. There is an old saying that big crops get bigger, small crops get smaller. IF we don't have an early season ending freeze, it is likely the Sep USDA report will be larger than the August estimates and the October numbers will be larger than the Sep guesses, which would be a major bearish influence on prices long term. The trouble for the bulls is the lack of any fresh bullish news and the ongoing bearish weather outlook. Of course, this could all change very quickly should the forecast change and cold temps threaten but for now no cold temps are in sight. The market added a cold weather premium last week to prices, especially beans, but so far this week it is taking this premium out.

The Australian Weather Bureau sees signs El Nino is moderating but not ending so this could turn out to be a mild El Nino year with less weather damage than previously feared. At least some rain is forecast in the dry areas of eastern Australia later this week. The Indian monsoon appears to be improving somewhat with more beneficial rain forecast in parts of the country the next several days.

The western US Midwest will see scattered rain today-tomorrow, up to 1.5" in the western part of the region. Dry weather is forecast Fri-Mon. The eastern half of the Midwest will see mostly dry conditions the rest of the week with rain possible early next week. The 6-10 day calls for above normal temps.