Mixed but mostly lower grains start likely
A mixed but mostly lower start is likely this am: steady/better wheat, 1 lower corn and 7-10 down beans. The $, crude oil and the equity markets haven't moved enough so far today to impact the grains very much. Malaysian palm oil fell 83 ringgit today, a negative background influence for our bean oil market.
The USDA announced the sale of 225,000 tonnes of US beans to China this am, reflecting continued strong Chinese demand for US beans.
The USDA wheat production report and quarterly stocks report will be out Wednesday am. This is a major report for wheat but not for corn or beans, although that doesn't mean corn or beans can't respond strongly that morning, because they will if there is a significant surprise in the numbers. Here is what the trade is looking for: wheat stocks as of Sep 1 - 2.132 billion bushels; corn stocks 1.719 billion bushels and bean stocks 111 million bushels. All wheat production is expected to be 2.195 billion bushels with all winter wheat 1.543 billion bushels; hard red winter wheat 917 million bushels; soft red winter wheat 413 million bushels; white winter wheat 217 million bushels; spring wheat 552 million bushels and durum wheat 98 million bushels. Friday, Dec wheat took out strong underlying support on the charts in the low 550's and closed below this area. Expect overhead resistance now in the low 550's unless Dec can close over this area.
Beneficial rain fell in the wheat belt of Argentina over the weekend but the driest area in the southwest part of the belt had the least amount of rain and there is no rain in the forecast this week. There is a freeze threat tonight in southern New South Wales state in Australia but it probably won't get cold enough to do much, if any, damage to the young wheat plants.
Here in the US, the southwest winter wheat belt saw welcome, scattered weekend rain of up to .6". More is forecast the second half of the week. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the northern part of the belt. The Midwest could see freezing temps tonight or tomorrow am in the far northwest part of the region. Otherwise there is no cold weather threat the next week or longer. Rain could become a problem in the Midwest if it delays early harvest efforts for corn or beans. Up to 1.5" of moisture is possible in the western half of the Midwest the second half of the week with rain in the east Thur-Fri possible also. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the west but below normal rain in the east. The delta will be drier after today, allowing for some bean harvesting but rain is forecast again later in the week, which could further delay harvest progress.
The USDA announced the sale of 225,000 tonnes of US beans to China this am, reflecting continued strong Chinese demand for US beans.
The USDA wheat production report and quarterly stocks report will be out Wednesday am. This is a major report for wheat but not for corn or beans, although that doesn't mean corn or beans can't respond strongly that morning, because they will if there is a significant surprise in the numbers. Here is what the trade is looking for: wheat stocks as of Sep 1 - 2.132 billion bushels; corn stocks 1.719 billion bushels and bean stocks 111 million bushels. All wheat production is expected to be 2.195 billion bushels with all winter wheat 1.543 billion bushels; hard red winter wheat 917 million bushels; soft red winter wheat 413 million bushels; white winter wheat 217 million bushels; spring wheat 552 million bushels and durum wheat 98 million bushels. Friday, Dec wheat took out strong underlying support on the charts in the low 550's and closed below this area. Expect overhead resistance now in the low 550's unless Dec can close over this area.
Beneficial rain fell in the wheat belt of Argentina over the weekend but the driest area in the southwest part of the belt had the least amount of rain and there is no rain in the forecast this week. There is a freeze threat tonight in southern New South Wales state in Australia but it probably won't get cold enough to do much, if any, damage to the young wheat plants.
Here in the US, the southwest winter wheat belt saw welcome, scattered weekend rain of up to .6". More is forecast the second half of the week. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the northern part of the belt. The Midwest could see freezing temps tonight or tomorrow am in the far northwest part of the region. Otherwise there is no cold weather threat the next week or longer. Rain could become a problem in the Midwest if it delays early harvest efforts for corn or beans. Up to 1.5" of moisture is possible in the western half of the Midwest the second half of the week with rain in the east Thur-Fri possible also. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the west but below normal rain in the east. The delta will be drier after today, allowing for some bean harvesting but rain is forecast again later in the week, which could further delay harvest progress.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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