A lower start is likely this am, 2-3 wheat, 3-5 corn and 7-10 beans following overnight losses of a similar amount. Crude oil is under strong pressure, equities are lower and the $ is higher this am, a bearish combination for all the grains. There isn't a lot of fresh news outside of the weather this am and the outside markets this am, both of which are bearish so look for a lower start and continued weakness during the session.

The government of New South Wales, Australia's second largest wheat-producing state, is warning that their wheat crop could be cut 20% by drought conditions last month and this. Some rain is forecast this week but it could be a case of too little, too late to improve wheat crop prospects there. Cold temps late last week and forecast this week in Heilongjiang, China's largest bean growing province, might have damaged the bean crop but it is too early to say how much.

The US northern plains spring wheat belt should enjoy mostly favorable harvest weather the next 7 days, speeding up harvesting. The problem is the much lower than normal protein content of the crop, causing it to sell at a sharp discount to normal, higher-protein spring wheat. The southwest winter wheat belt benefited from scattered weekend rain and more is forecast there today and Thursday. The Midwest continues to enjoy warm temps with no freeze threat in sight the next 7 days or longer. The longer corn and beans develop this season, the larger the size of these crops is likely to become. This weighed heavily on these markets the latter part of last week and will do so again to start this week. The delta is expected to remain very wet the next week or so, delaying early bean harvesting. This helped provide some support for beans last week and could do so again this week, especially if China keeps buying large amounts of US beans after taking at least 300,000 tonnes last week.