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Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Steady/Higher Grains Start Expected

A steady/higher start is indicated this am, steady/better wheat and corn, 10-15 up in beans. Crude oil, gold and equities are higher while the $ is lower, a bullish combination for all the grains. The big USDA Sep crop report is Friday am. I will have all the trade averages either later today or tomorrow am.

Deliveries totaled 1200 wheat, 1850 oil and 70 corn with no beans or meal yet.

France's Agricultural Ministy upped its 2009 soft wheat production guess 1.2 million tonnes from last month to 37.3 million tonnes.

The director of India's Meteorological Dep't said the monsoon rains are now forecast to be only 15-18% below normal for the June-Sep period vs previous expectations of a 20% shortfall due to recent improvement in monsoon rains. Very much needed rain fell in the driest parts of Argentina's wheat belt over the weekend, up to 1.5" with good coverage. There is a freeze threat in the northern Canadian Prairies this week but any damage should be limited. Warmer temps are forecast afterward. Very beneficial rain fell late last week and over the weekend in northern New South Wales state in Australia, where it was badly needed.

Here in the US Midwest, there is no cold weather threat the next 7-10 days. The western half of the belt was mostly dry over the weekend but up to 1 1/4" fell in parts of the east during this time. This week will see generally light, scattered rain in parts of the belt with mild temps. The 6-10 day calls for above normal temps.

There will be a seminar broadcast online from the CME at 2pm US Central time tomorrow but you must register to watch or send in questions. Go to www.cmegroup.com/grainseminar to register.

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