The Sep USDA crop report was mostly in line with trade expectations. Corn production was 12.954 billion bushels and beans were 3.245 billion. Corn's yield was estimated at 161.9 bushels per acre with beans 42.3. The corn carryover estimate for 2008-09 was 1.695 billion bushels and for 2009-10 it was 1.635 billion. Beans were 110 million bushels for 2008-09 and 220 million for 2009-10. Wheat was 743 million bushels for 2009-10. World carryover numbers were 186.6 million tonnes for wheat, up from 183.6 million estimated last month; corn was 139.1 million tonnes vs 141.5 million last month; beans were 50.5 million against 50.3 million last month; meal was 5.11 million tonnes vs 5.0 million last month and oil was 2.36 million tonnes vs 2.42 million last month. The USDA cut their guess on the size of China's 2009-10 corn crop to 160 million tonnes vs 162.5 million last month. Many private analysts think the crop is much smaller than this, perhaps as small as 150-155 million tonnes. The USDA also cut their guess on China's bean crop to 15 million tonnes vs their previous estimate of 15.4 million. The USDA left their estimate on the Argentine bean crop unchanged at 51 million tonnes for the 2009-10 crop year but raised their Brazilian bean guess to 62 million tonnes vs 60 million previously. They upped their EU wheat production guess to 138.5 million tonnes vs 135.3 estimated previously. They also cut their Argentine wheat guess to 8 million tonnes vs 8.5 million before and trimmed their Argentine corn crop estimate to 14 million tonnes from 15 million before.

Weekly export sales were also out this am and they were in line for oil but better than expected for everything else. Wheat was 551,000 tonnes this crop year and 85,000 tonnes next crop year; corn was 1.025 million tonnes; beans were 830,000 tonnes; meal was 15,000 tonnes old crop and 250,000 tonnes new crop; oil was 9500 tonnes old crop and 8000 tonnes new crop. (Traders were expecting wheat sales of (000 omitted) 300-500, corn 400-600, beans 300-500, meal 50-175 and oil 10-30.) Look for a steady/mixed start this am.