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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

USDA grain stocks report friendly for corn; negative for wheat, beans

The USDA quarterly grain stocks report was friendly for corn but negative for wheat and beans as you can see from the tables that will post in the next comment. The wheat production numbers were mixed, as the tables indicate. The USDA did raise its 2008 bean production guess to 2.967 billion bushels but this was only an increase of 8 million bushels from their previous guess of 2.959 billion, not the almost 300 million bushel increase that some sources reported earlier.

The current call is steady corn, down 2-4 wheat and off 3-4 beans.

Today is first notice day for Oct meal and oil deliveries. There were no meal deliveries but 3300 oil was delivered with ADM putting out 1300. There were no large commercial stoppers. Crude oil is a bit higher while the $ is lower this am, a supportive combination for the grains. Grain prices were mostly a little higher overnight but this means little ahead of the USDA reports.

Chinese markets will close for their National Day holiday tomorrow and remain closed for a week, reopening Oct 9.

The CME Group announced variable storage rates will be implemented in wheat starting with the Sep 2010 contract. This change is being made to the wheat contract in an attempt to improve convergence, the coming together of the cash and futures price at expiration, something that hasn't been happening in wheat the last couple of years but is vital for successful hedging.

More much-needed rain is forecast early next week in Argentina's wheat belt but mostly in northern and eastern areas with the driest part of the belt, the southwest, likely to get the least amount of moisture. Cold temps in northern Chinese grain areas could damage late developing crops the next few days. Continued dry weather in northern New South Wales state, one of Australia's largest wheat growing states, will further stress wheat there with no rain in sight.

The US southwest winter wheat belt will see light, scattered rain tonight-tomorrow with more possible early next week. The delta will see more harvest delaying rain tomorrow-Friday and the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could mean even more bean harvest delays ahead. The Midwest saw cold temps in the north this am and more are forecast tomorrow am, possibily causing some freeze damage to corn and beans. More chances for freeze damage exist in the forecast for next week, when these crops, especially corn, will still not be fully mature and safe from cold weather. Early harvest delays could result due to wet conditions with up to 2.5" of rain forecast in the west the next couple of days and up to 1.5" forecast in the east.

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