Weekly Crop Progress: Corn, beans behind normal
A slightly higher start is expected this am, about 3 in wheat and beans, 5 in corn, similar to overnight gains. Crude oil is higher but so is the $, sending mixed signals to the grains.
Corn and beans development remains way behind normal, reflected by yesterday afternoon's Weekly Crop Progress report. Only 12% of the corn is mature and safe from a hard freeze (temps 28 degrees or lower for 2 or more hours) while just 17% of the beans are mature. Normally, 37% of the corn and 36% of the beans would be mature by this time in the season. The condition of the crops remains very good despite their late development. Corn is rated 69% good to excellent and beans are 68%, both unchanged from last week's ratings. Spring wheat harvesting remains behind normal with 69% of the crop harvested vs 92% average. Winter wheat planting is 13%, the same as average.
Egypt is in the market for wheat and results should be out shortly before our opening.
The Australian government estimated their wheat crop at 22.72 million tonnes vs their previous guess of 21.97 million in June. They put the canola crop at 1.72 million tonnes vs their June guess of 1.70 million. Interestingly, Australian Crop Forecasters, a private Australian analytical firm, cut their wheat production guess to 22 million tonnes vs 23.5 million last month, citing drought conditions in parts of eastern Australia, especially New South Wales. The Australian weather bureau said the southern oscillation index (soi), a measure of how severe any El Nino weather event is likely to become, increased to +1 for the 30 day period ending Sep 12. The previous soi was -2. The lower the soi, the stronger the El Nino weather pattern is likely to be so a higher and rising soi suggests El Nino will be relatively weak. This could be good news for Australian wheat prospects.
The forecast calls for much colder temps in the second half of next week in the Midwest, especially the northwest part of the belt. This could bring freezing temps into the Midwest, hurting corn and beans. Temps are forecast to remain mild for the next 6-7 days, however, enabling crops to continue developing. Mostly dry weather is forecast in the Midwest the next several days or longer, with the exception of the southeast part of the belt, where light, scattered rain is forecast this week. Scattered rain is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt this week, where it is welcome.
Corn and beans development remains way behind normal, reflected by yesterday afternoon's Weekly Crop Progress report. Only 12% of the corn is mature and safe from a hard freeze (temps 28 degrees or lower for 2 or more hours) while just 17% of the beans are mature. Normally, 37% of the corn and 36% of the beans would be mature by this time in the season. The condition of the crops remains very good despite their late development. Corn is rated 69% good to excellent and beans are 68%, both unchanged from last week's ratings. Spring wheat harvesting remains behind normal with 69% of the crop harvested vs 92% average. Winter wheat planting is 13%, the same as average.
Egypt is in the market for wheat and results should be out shortly before our opening.
The Australian government estimated their wheat crop at 22.72 million tonnes vs their previous guess of 21.97 million in June. They put the canola crop at 1.72 million tonnes vs their June guess of 1.70 million. Interestingly, Australian Crop Forecasters, a private Australian analytical firm, cut their wheat production guess to 22 million tonnes vs 23.5 million last month, citing drought conditions in parts of eastern Australia, especially New South Wales. The Australian weather bureau said the southern oscillation index (soi), a measure of how severe any El Nino weather event is likely to become, increased to +1 for the 30 day period ending Sep 12. The previous soi was -2. The lower the soi, the stronger the El Nino weather pattern is likely to be so a higher and rising soi suggests El Nino will be relatively weak. This could be good news for Australian wheat prospects.
The forecast calls for much colder temps in the second half of next week in the Midwest, especially the northwest part of the belt. This could bring freezing temps into the Midwest, hurting corn and beans. Temps are forecast to remain mild for the next 6-7 days, however, enabling crops to continue developing. Mostly dry weather is forecast in the Midwest the next several days or longer, with the exception of the southeast part of the belt, where light, scattered rain is forecast this week. Scattered rain is forecast in the southwest winter wheat belt this week, where it is welcome.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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