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Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Crop Progress Report: Corn, beans behind in maturity

Prices should be higher to start, roughly 8-10 wheat and corn, 10-15 beans, following similar overnight gains. The $ is lower while equities and crude oil are higher, a supportive influence for all the grains.

The Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon showed corn still far behind normal in maturity, only 57% vs 84% normally at this time in the season. Beans are behind also but not as much at 79% vs 88%. This slow rate of maturity means these crops, especially corn, are vulnerable to damage should a freeze hit the northern half of the Midwest late this week, as currently forecast. This prospect helped rally the market yesterday, especially corn, and could do so again today. Harvest progress is also slow, only 10% done in corn vs 25% average and 15% in beans vs 36% average. Spring wheat harvesting is virtually done at 97%. Winter wheat planting is on target at 53% complete vs 55% average.

The big USDA October crop report will be out Friday am and there will probably be a lot of evening up and positioning ahead of this report, which could move the market sharply.

No confirmation yet on yesterday's late rumor that Brazil was importing US ethanol, specifically from ADM. This provided strong support for corn yesterday and could do so again today. China's markets are still closed for a holiday but they will be reopened Friday.

Scattered rain is predicted in the US southwest winter wheat belt the next few days, where it is welcome. The delta will continue wet the rest of the week, further delaying bean harvesting. Light, scattered rain fell in the western Midwest yesterday. More is possible late Wednesday and Thursday. The eastern Midwest will see rain today and again Thur-Fri. Freezing temps are forecast across much of the northern Midwest Fri-Sun, which could harm still developing crops, especially corn.

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