Crush in line with trade ideas
A slightly lower start is forecast this am, 2-4 wheat, 2-3 corn and 6-8 beans. Crude oil is lower while the $ index is lower, a bearish combination for all the grains.
The Census Bureau Sep crush was in line with trade ideas at 114 million bushels. Meal stocks were lower than expected at 239,200 short tons but oil stocks were higher than forecast at 2.880 billion lbs. Yesterday oil was losing on a spread basis vs meal most of the session but late in the day oil rallied sharply to once again gain vs meal with the Dec oil share ending at 39.13%. Oil share is the % of the value of the crush oil represents compared with meal. This morning's crush report is negative for oil, a little supportive for meal, which could influence spreading between the two. However, the weekly export sales report this am was just the opposite: oil sales were strong at 23,000 tonnes but meal sales were slow at only 116,000 tonnes. Bean sales were good at 987,000 tonnes, as was wheat at 628,000 tonnes. Corn sales were poor at only 235,000 tonnes.
Nov options expire at the close tomorrow.
Here is another seasonal trade: the last 15 years in a row, Jul wheat has gained on Dec wheat on a spread basis from Oct 23 to Nov 8. Buy Jul/sell Dec wheat tomorrow and take the spread off either Nov 6 or 9 since the 8th is a Sunday this year. (Of course, you could actually take this spread off on Nov 8 in the electronic market which will be trading that night.)
The southwest winter wheat belt had up to 1.5" of scattered rain the last 24 hours. More is forecast today before dry weather moves into the belt the next several days. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which should keep conditions in good shape overall. The Midwest saw up to 1.25" in the west the last 24 hours, mostly dry weather in the east. Up to 2 1/2" of rain is forecast across much of the belt the next two days. More is possible early next week and the 6-10 forecast calls for above normal rain. All the moisture will keep corn and bean harvest progress slow, which is supportive for prices.
The Census Bureau Sep crush was in line with trade ideas at 114 million bushels. Meal stocks were lower than expected at 239,200 short tons but oil stocks were higher than forecast at 2.880 billion lbs. Yesterday oil was losing on a spread basis vs meal most of the session but late in the day oil rallied sharply to once again gain vs meal with the Dec oil share ending at 39.13%. Oil share is the % of the value of the crush oil represents compared with meal. This morning's crush report is negative for oil, a little supportive for meal, which could influence spreading between the two. However, the weekly export sales report this am was just the opposite: oil sales were strong at 23,000 tonnes but meal sales were slow at only 116,000 tonnes. Bean sales were good at 987,000 tonnes, as was wheat at 628,000 tonnes. Corn sales were poor at only 235,000 tonnes.
Nov options expire at the close tomorrow.
Here is another seasonal trade: the last 15 years in a row, Jul wheat has gained on Dec wheat on a spread basis from Oct 23 to Nov 8. Buy Jul/sell Dec wheat tomorrow and take the spread off either Nov 6 or 9 since the 8th is a Sunday this year. (Of course, you could actually take this spread off on Nov 8 in the electronic market which will be trading that night.)
The southwest winter wheat belt had up to 1.5" of scattered rain the last 24 hours. More is forecast today before dry weather moves into the belt the next several days. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which should keep conditions in good shape overall. The Midwest saw up to 1.25" in the west the last 24 hours, mostly dry weather in the east. Up to 2 1/2" of rain is forecast across much of the belt the next two days. More is possible early next week and the 6-10 forecast calls for above normal rain. All the moisture will keep corn and bean harvest progress slow, which is supportive for prices.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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