Grains harvest pace slowest since '85
A steady/lower start is likely this am, following modest overnight losses in most pits. Wheat is called steady/mixed, corn down 1 and beans off 3-5. Crude oil is a shade lower but the $ index is a little lower while equities are a bit higher, sending mixed signals to the grains. Today could be a "turn-a-round Tuesday" type session with the market reversing course from yesterday's big gains.
The weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon showed only small progress in corn and bean harvesting with just 17% of the corn done vs 46% average while only 30% of the beans are harvested vs 72% average. This harvest pace is the slowest for both crops since the USDA started tracking harvest progress in 1985! Winter wheat planting is also behind schedule due to wet weather with 69% planted vs 78% average. The pace of soft red winter wheat planting, the type traded here in Chicago, is particularly slow. Illinois, for example, a grower of soft red winter wheat, is only 13% done vs 67% average. Hard red winter wheat planting in the southwest is much further along in comparison. Corn maturity continues to lag well behind normal with 83% of the crop mature and safe from freezing temps vs 97% average.
The CFTC recently revised their weekly committment of traders (COT) report to make it much more comprehensive, dividing traders into 4 groups (producers and merchants, swaps dealers, money managers and others) vs the two groups they used to report on (commercials and non-commercials, or speculators). Today the CFTC said they will release the more detailed COT report dating back to June 13, 2006 in an effort to improve market transparency. This probably won't impact the market but it might reveal some interesting statistics.
Iraq will be in the market late this month for 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat and there are reports Algeria late last week bought 300,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
The US southwest will see rain starting tomorrow night and continuing through Thursday with up to 2" expected before dry weather moves into the belt this weekend. The Midwest was dry the last 24 hours. Unwelcome, harvest delaying rain will sweep across much of the belt starting tonight in the west, tomorrow in the east. This rain will end Thursday in the west, Friday in the east after dropping as much as 1.5" in the west and up to 2" in the east. A dry weekend is now forecast but the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could cause further harvest delays for corn and beans as well as additional planting delays for soft red winter wheat.
The weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon showed only small progress in corn and bean harvesting with just 17% of the corn done vs 46% average while only 30% of the beans are harvested vs 72% average. This harvest pace is the slowest for both crops since the USDA started tracking harvest progress in 1985! Winter wheat planting is also behind schedule due to wet weather with 69% planted vs 78% average. The pace of soft red winter wheat planting, the type traded here in Chicago, is particularly slow. Illinois, for example, a grower of soft red winter wheat, is only 13% done vs 67% average. Hard red winter wheat planting in the southwest is much further along in comparison. Corn maturity continues to lag well behind normal with 83% of the crop mature and safe from freezing temps vs 97% average.
The CFTC recently revised their weekly committment of traders (COT) report to make it much more comprehensive, dividing traders into 4 groups (producers and merchants, swaps dealers, money managers and others) vs the two groups they used to report on (commercials and non-commercials, or speculators). Today the CFTC said they will release the more detailed COT report dating back to June 13, 2006 in an effort to improve market transparency. This probably won't impact the market but it might reveal some interesting statistics.
Iraq will be in the market late this month for 100,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat and there are reports Algeria late last week bought 300,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat.
The US southwest will see rain starting tomorrow night and continuing through Thursday with up to 2" expected before dry weather moves into the belt this weekend. The Midwest was dry the last 24 hours. Unwelcome, harvest delaying rain will sweep across much of the belt starting tonight in the west, tomorrow in the east. This rain will end Thursday in the west, Friday in the east after dropping as much as 1.5" in the west and up to 2" in the east. A dry weekend is now forecast but the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could cause further harvest delays for corn and beans as well as additional planting delays for soft red winter wheat.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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