Higher Grains Start Expected Following Overnight Gains
A higher start is expected this am, 10-15 wheat, 5-10 corn and 15 beans, following similarly large overnight gains. Crude oil is slightly higher but so is the $, not giving any guidance to the grains at this time. Nov options expire at the close today.
There has been growing concern recently about the wet weather-delayed Midwestern corn and bean harvest, which is preventing soft red winter wheat planting. It is getting late to plant this crop and if wet weather continues, as is currently forecast, some intended soft red winter wheat acreage might not be planted this season. This is bullish of course for wheat, especially here in Chicago, where soft red winter wheat is traded. The latest weekly crop progress report, out Monday afternoon, showed total winter wheat planting, including hard red winter, soft red winter and white winter, was moderately behind schedule, 69% vs 78% average. Kansas, the largest hard red winter wheat producing state in the country, was 73% done vs 83 average. In contrast, soft red winter wheat states are way behind normal. For example, Illinois was only 13% done vs 67% average while Indiana was 22% complete vs 69% average. In some areas, the optimum planting period is already past or about to be, causing a growing number of farmers to quit planting soft red winter. Further planting delays could result in well below average yields in those fields that are planted now or later unless we have very good weather conditions the rest of the fall and next spring, when the crop comes out of dormancy and resumes growth.
It is raining heavily in the Chicago area this am. This has a bigger impact on the market than if it were raining heavily in some other Midwestern location, such as Des Moines, Iowa, since most local traders live in the Chicago area and the weather here strongly influences their trading ideas. Up to 2" fell over much of the Midwest the last 24 hours. There is more rain forecast today followed by drier weather this weekend. More rain is forecast the first half of next week although amounts are expected to be lighter than from the current system. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could keep conditions unfavorable for harvesting throughout next week. The southwest winter wheat belt, where hard red winter wheat is grown, had scattered, light precipitation in the form of rain or snow yesterday. More is expected the first half of next week after a mostly dry weekend, which will be welcome.
There has been growing concern recently about the wet weather-delayed Midwestern corn and bean harvest, which is preventing soft red winter wheat planting. It is getting late to plant this crop and if wet weather continues, as is currently forecast, some intended soft red winter wheat acreage might not be planted this season. This is bullish of course for wheat, especially here in Chicago, where soft red winter wheat is traded. The latest weekly crop progress report, out Monday afternoon, showed total winter wheat planting, including hard red winter, soft red winter and white winter, was moderately behind schedule, 69% vs 78% average. Kansas, the largest hard red winter wheat producing state in the country, was 73% done vs 83 average. In contrast, soft red winter wheat states are way behind normal. For example, Illinois was only 13% done vs 67% average while Indiana was 22% complete vs 69% average. In some areas, the optimum planting period is already past or about to be, causing a growing number of farmers to quit planting soft red winter. Further planting delays could result in well below average yields in those fields that are planted now or later unless we have very good weather conditions the rest of the fall and next spring, when the crop comes out of dormancy and resumes growth.
It is raining heavily in the Chicago area this am. This has a bigger impact on the market than if it were raining heavily in some other Midwestern location, such as Des Moines, Iowa, since most local traders live in the Chicago area and the weather here strongly influences their trading ideas. Up to 2" fell over much of the Midwest the last 24 hours. There is more rain forecast today followed by drier weather this weekend. More rain is forecast the first half of next week although amounts are expected to be lighter than from the current system. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could keep conditions unfavorable for harvesting throughout next week. The southwest winter wheat belt, where hard red winter wheat is grown, had scattered, light precipitation in the form of rain or snow yesterday. More is expected the first half of next week after a mostly dry weekend, which will be welcome.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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