Higher grains start forecast
A higher start is forecast this am, roughly 5-10 in wheat, 3-5 corn and 10-15 beans following overnight gains. Crude oil is a little lower currently but so is the $ while equities are higher, not providing much direction either way for the grains.
Reports of frost in some eastern Australian wheat areas over the weekend might have done some damage to the wheat crop there while high temps in some western parts of the belt could also have hurt production prospects for wheat. There is talk crushers in northeast China cancelled 2-3 cargoes of US beans, replacing them with domestically produced beans to take advantage of the government's almost $31 a tonne subsidy but this talk is not confirmed.
Deutsche Bank will start reducing its long positions in wheat and corn today, completing this rebalancing of its portfolio by the end of the month. How much they will sell in wheat and corn is unknown but estimates range as high as 15,000 contracts in each. Since this will be spread out over the next two weeks, its impact on these markets should be limited.
Seasonally, Nov beans often rally during the last half of Oct. More corn and bean harvest delays are expected the second half of this week and beyond, which is the main reason for the expected strength in these pits this am. Traders are looking forward to the weekly crop progress report this afternoon which will show how much (or how little) harvest progress was made over the last week.
Beneficial rain is forecast in Argentine grain areas this week. Welcome rain fell in southern Brazil over the weekend, up to 2.5". More is forecast today before drier weather moves in the rest of the week. The north will see up to 1.5" today-Wednesday. This rain will slow planting progress but provide soil moisture for crop development once the crops are in the ground.
The US delta will stay dry through mid week, allowing for good bean harvest progress but rain is forecast Thursday. The southwest winter wheat belt was mostly dry over the weekend and more of the same is forecast the next couple of days. Rain is forecast Wednesday, up to 1.5", which will be welcome. The Midwest was mainly dry over the weekend. Up to 1" of rain will fall in the west with another 1" forecast Thur-Fri. The east will see rain the second half of the week, up to 1.5". The 6-10 day calls for cool and wet conditions, a combination that is likely to keep harvesting of corn and beans slow well beyond this week.
Reports of frost in some eastern Australian wheat areas over the weekend might have done some damage to the wheat crop there while high temps in some western parts of the belt could also have hurt production prospects for wheat. There is talk crushers in northeast China cancelled 2-3 cargoes of US beans, replacing them with domestically produced beans to take advantage of the government's almost $31 a tonne subsidy but this talk is not confirmed.
Deutsche Bank will start reducing its long positions in wheat and corn today, completing this rebalancing of its portfolio by the end of the month. How much they will sell in wheat and corn is unknown but estimates range as high as 15,000 contracts in each. Since this will be spread out over the next two weeks, its impact on these markets should be limited.
Seasonally, Nov beans often rally during the last half of Oct. More corn and bean harvest delays are expected the second half of this week and beyond, which is the main reason for the expected strength in these pits this am. Traders are looking forward to the weekly crop progress report this afternoon which will show how much (or how little) harvest progress was made over the last week.
Beneficial rain is forecast in Argentine grain areas this week. Welcome rain fell in southern Brazil over the weekend, up to 2.5". More is forecast today before drier weather moves in the rest of the week. The north will see up to 1.5" today-Wednesday. This rain will slow planting progress but provide soil moisture for crop development once the crops are in the ground.
The US delta will stay dry through mid week, allowing for good bean harvest progress but rain is forecast Thursday. The southwest winter wheat belt was mostly dry over the weekend and more of the same is forecast the next couple of days. Rain is forecast Wednesday, up to 1.5", which will be welcome. The Midwest was mainly dry over the weekend. Up to 1" of rain will fall in the west with another 1" forecast Thur-Fri. The east will see rain the second half of the week, up to 1.5". The 6-10 day calls for cool and wet conditions, a combination that is likely to keep harvesting of corn and beans slow well beyond this week.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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