A lower start is indicated this am, 4-5 in wheat and corn, 8-10 in beans. Prices were lower overnight, the $ is a little higher and crude oil is lower, all strong indicators of a lower start in the grains.

Grains were lower Wednesday, higher yesterday and will start lower this am in choppy, back and forth trading. Today is the last trading day of the month, a day when funds supposedly are more active than usual. If so, this could push prices further in either direction, depending on what the funds do, if anything. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news yet today so we will concentrate on the $ and the latest weather forecast, both of which are bearish currently for the grains.

It has been hot in Argentine grain areas lately but cooler and wetter weather is forecast this weekend, which will be beneficial for the crops. Brazilian bean areas will be mostly dry the next 5-7 days, which will be helpful as way too much rain has fallen in many parts of the belt lately.

More heavy rain is forecast in the US delta today, further delaying harvesting and causing additional quality losses to the bean crop. Dry weather is forecast starting this weekend and continuing most of next week, which will be very welcome. The southwest winter wheat belt saw up to .5" of rain in the west the last 24 hours. Mostly dry weather is forecast the next 7 days and the 6-10 calls for below normal rain, which will help finish planting. The Midwest saw up to 1.5" of widespread, unwanted rain the last 24 hours. The western half of the belt will be mostly dry today into at least the second half of next week. The eastern half of the belt will see up to 1" of unwanted rain today, replaced by mostly dry weather this weekend through most of next week. The 6-10 day calls for below normal rain, which should help facilitate late corn and bean harvesting. Of course, the forecast can and probably will change over coming days but at least for this morning the forecast is bearish.