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Friday, November 27, 2009

Dubai debt crisis triggers worldwide sell off

A lower start is expected in all pits following the worldwide equity sell off due to the debt crisis in Dubai. Apparently, Dubai is asking for a 6 month delay in repaying roughly $60 billion in debt and this triggered a massive wave of selling in equities/buying of the $, which is still viewed as a safe haven during economic crisis, around the world today. The $ is sharply higher as a result and almost all commodites are sharply lower, including metals, such as gold, energy, such as crude oil, and grains. The early call is 12-15 down in wheat, 10 lower in corn and 20-25 off in beans.

Traders will monitor the Dubai situation and watch the $ today for guidance in the grains. The floor will close at noon today, US Central time.

Weekly export sales were in line for wheat at 351,000 tonnes, and meal at 225,000 tonnes. The rest were very good: 1.224 million tonnes of corn, 1.135 million tonnes of beans and 19,000 tonnes of oil. Actual bean exports were 2.435 million tonnes, a high for the marketing year, which began Sep 1. Of the 2.435 million tonnes, 1.835 million went to China. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 11% of the Argentine wheat crop has been harvested while 72% of the corn and 50% of the beans have been planted so far this season. The exchange cut its wheat production guess from 7.75 million tonnes to 7.5 million.

Up to 1" more beneficial Argentine rain is forecast today through Sunday, favoring northern and eastern areas. More rain is forecast mid next week. Good growing conditions continue in Brazil although there is too much rain in Rio Grande state in the south.

The US Midwest saw modest, scattered rain the last 48 hours, favoring the eastern half of the belt. The Midwest will be generally dry today-Wednesday next week, allowing corn harvesting to make rapid progress and bean harvesting to finish. However, the 6-10 day calls for above normal rain in the southeast part of the belt, which will delay any left over harvest there.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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