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Monday, November 2, 2009

Grain traders focused on weather, lower dollar

A mixed but mostly better start is expected this am, down 1 in wheat, up 1 in corn and 6-8 higher in beans. The $ is a little lower while crude oil is higher, a slightly supportive combination for the grains. There were no bean deliveries again this am. The lack of fresh market moving news this am will probably keep traders attention focused on the $ and the weather.

The weather appears very bearish with dry conditions across most of the Midwest, delta and southwest over the weekend and more of the same forecast today through Saturday. This will speed up corn and bean harvesting and advance winter wheat planting. However, this bearish weather picture was discounted by the big sell off in the grains last week so it is already at least partly in the market.

More dry weather is forecast for Brazilian grain areas the next several days but rain is forecast later this week into the weekend. This dry weather break will be welcome after too much rain last month in some parts of the belt. Argentina will see welcome rain today after several days of hot weather.

All the main US growing areas, the southwest, Delta and Midwest, had mostly dry weather over the weekend with more of the same predicted all this week. This will be beneficial for winter wheat planting as well as corn and bean harvesting. The 6-10 day forecast calls for above normal rain in the western Midwest and eastern part of the southwest, below normal rain in the eastern Midwest and western part of the southwest.

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