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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Grains rally is difficult to explain

The early call is roughly 3 higher in wheat and corn, 15 up in beans.

The upward march of commodities in general continues this am with crude oil, gold and grains all higher overnight following the lower $. Of course, most commodities were higher yesterday too despite the higher $ so there is something else in the market. Funds continue buying, representing fresh spec money that perhaps wants to own commodities as a hedge against inflation. The Baltic Exchange main sea freight index keeps shooting higher, reflecting increased demand to move freight around the world, hopefully a bullish sign for the overall world economy (and grains). Otherwise, it is difficult to explain this rally. US wheat, for example, is way overpriced compared with other countries yet it keeps rocketing higher. Yesterday, for the second day in a row, wheat volume (pit and electronic combined) was greater than beans - up until now a very rare event.

Up to 1" more beneficial rain fell in parts of Argentina's grain belt the last 24 hours. Additional welcome rain will fall today-tomorrow and again early next week, improving the outlook for Argentine crops. Brazilian weather remains favorable as well.

Rain is forecast to return to the US delta this weekend, slowing late bean harvesting again. Light, scattered rain fell in parts of the western midwest the last 24 hours. Up to 3/4" was scatterd over the eastern midwest during this time. The west will be mostly dry today through Sunday but the east will see rain today and tomorrow with dry weather the rest of the week. The 6-10 day predicts wetter than normal conditions, which will further slow corn and late bean harvesting.

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