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Thursday, November 12, 2009

Higher dollar weighs on grain overnights

A lower start is expected this am, 7-8 cents in wheat, corn and beans. The higher $ weighed on prices overnight and will do so again this am, possibly sparking widespread spec long liquidation as well as bringing new shorts into the market. There isn't a lot of fresh market moving news.

Egypt is in the market for wheat this am but they are not expected to buy any US wheat since it is too expensive relative to other origins. Weekly export sales were delayed until tomorrow am as the USDA was closed for the Veteran's Day holiday Wednesday.

Starting Monday, March corn replaces Dec on the top step of the pit that day.

The Dec oil share closed at 39.75% yesterday, its highest level since May as oil continues gaining strongly vs meal.

Vague talk about China possibly loosening control of the won vs the $ might be behind the strengthening of the $ yesterday and this am. Whatever the reason, a higher $ is strongly correlated with lower grain prices so traders will keep watching the machinations of the $ closely for signals of the grain's direction.

The main Argentine grain areas will see light, scattered but still welcome rain over the next several days with the exception of southwest Buenos Aires province.

The US midwest should remain mostly dry the next couple of days but light,scattered rain is forecast this weekend, slowing, but not halting, corn and late bean harvesting. Heavier rain than forecast yesterday is now predicted in much of the Midwest early next week, Sun-Mon in the west, Mon-Tue in the east. This will delay harvesting, especially of corn. Beans will be mostly harvested by early next week but not corn. Roughly 90% or more of the bean harvest is likely to be reported complete in this coming Monday's weekly harvest report but only around 50% of the corn.

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