Higher grains start despite bearish forecast
A higher start is indicated in all the grains this am, roughly 8-10 in wheat and beans, 5 in corn. This is despite the bearish weather forecast. The $ is lower while crude oil, gold (which spiked sharply higher yesterday) and equities are all higher, sending a strong bullish signal to the grains.
There were 220 bean deliveries this am, the first of the month. The delivery date was Oct 1 and no commercials stopped any of the beans.
Informa puts out its Nov crop estimates at 10:30am US Central time today, followed by FC Stone late this afternoon. Also, the Federal Reserve Board will announce any changes in its policy today at 1:15 pm, US Central time, when the grains close. This could impact grain prices tonight, depending on what the Fed says.
The funds were big, aggressive buyers again yesterday, mainly in corn and, to a lesser extent beans, but they ignored wheat, causing this market to lag well behind the big gains in corn and beans. It is said the funds spread big trades over a three-day period. I don't know if this is true or not but if it is today would be the third day so some traders think we will see large scale fund buying again today.
Deutsche Bank started moving their long Dec 2009 corn position into Dec 2010 yesterday at the close with three large trading houses doing about 7000 contracts of this spread. More of the same is expected late in the session the next 4 days. This put some late pressure on Dec 09 and lent late support to Dec 10 corn. Goldman Sachs will start moving their long positions forward starting Friday.
Brazil will see renewed rain in their bean belt Thur-Sun. Despite excessive rain last month, Brazilian bean planting is well ahead of normal for this time of year.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will stay dry the rest of this week into the weekend, allowing for late planting of the crop. The delta will stay dry through Sunday, helping farmers harvest beans until rain returns early next week. The midwest will stay dry the next 6-7 days, which will be welcome for corn and bean harvest efforts. The 6-10 day appears drier this am than was the case yesterday am, which is welcome.
There were 220 bean deliveries this am, the first of the month. The delivery date was Oct 1 and no commercials stopped any of the beans.
Informa puts out its Nov crop estimates at 10:30am US Central time today, followed by FC Stone late this afternoon. Also, the Federal Reserve Board will announce any changes in its policy today at 1:15 pm, US Central time, when the grains close. This could impact grain prices tonight, depending on what the Fed says.
The funds were big, aggressive buyers again yesterday, mainly in corn and, to a lesser extent beans, but they ignored wheat, causing this market to lag well behind the big gains in corn and beans. It is said the funds spread big trades over a three-day period. I don't know if this is true or not but if it is today would be the third day so some traders think we will see large scale fund buying again today.
Deutsche Bank started moving their long Dec 2009 corn position into Dec 2010 yesterday at the close with three large trading houses doing about 7000 contracts of this spread. More of the same is expected late in the session the next 4 days. This put some late pressure on Dec 09 and lent late support to Dec 10 corn. Goldman Sachs will start moving their long positions forward starting Friday.
Brazil will see renewed rain in their bean belt Thur-Sun. Despite excessive rain last month, Brazilian bean planting is well ahead of normal for this time of year.
The US southwest winter wheat belt will stay dry the rest of this week into the weekend, allowing for late planting of the crop. The delta will stay dry through Sunday, helping farmers harvest beans until rain returns early next week. The midwest will stay dry the next 6-7 days, which will be welcome for corn and bean harvest efforts. The 6-10 day appears drier this am than was the case yesterday am, which is welcome.
posted by InsightPublishing at
10:30 AM
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