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Monday, November 16, 2009

Higher grains start forecast following overnight gains

A higher start is forecast this am following overnight gains. The $ index is weak while gold, crude oil and equities are all higher, which will encourage buying in all the grains this am. The early call is 7-8 better wheat and beans, 5-6 higher corn. Traders will once again be keeping a close watch on the direction of the $ for guidance in the grains during the course of the session.

The National Oilseed Processors Association October crush report was much larger than expected, 155.3 million bushels, but oil stocks were only slightly larger than forecast, 2.286 billion lbs. This report will lend support to the bean complex today.

A senior Indian government official said India has no plans to import wheat this year, refuting talk late last week that India could import as much as 1 million tonnes of wheat by March.

Up to 7" of very heavy rain fell in southern Brazil over the weekend which will slow planting in this region. Mostly dry weather is forecast in the south this week but heavy rain could return to the south by this coming weekend. Parana, in central Brazil, will see heavy rain the next couple of days. The northern states, such as Mato Grasso, had a dry weekend and favorable weather is forecast this week. Conditions remain very good overall in Brazil. Argentina had up to 1.5" welcome scattered rains in the northern half of the country over the weekend. The southern half of the nation had only light weekend rains. More rain is forecast in the north this week but the south will be mostly dry.

The US southwest saw scattered weekend precipitation and more is forecast today. It will be mostly dry the rest of the week after today but the 6-10 day predicts above normal precipitation. Overall, conditions remain favorable in the southwest for the winter wheat crop. The midwest saw light, scattered weekend rain. Up to 1.5" of precipitation is forecast the first half of the week in the west, especially the southern half. The east will see up to 1.5" of precipitation today-tomorrow. The midwest will be mostly dry the second half of the week. The 6-10 day calls for above normal precipitation. All this moisture, either in the form of rain or snow, will not be a problem for beans, which are mostly harvested. It will be a problem for corn, with roughly half the harvest still to go.

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