A mixed start is indicated by overnight trading but there is a widespread expectation that when the opening bell rings we will be lower: since the grains closed their overnight session earlier this am, the $ has rallied while crude oil and equities have sold off, which will encourage selling in the grains this am. Two of the three important market movers are bearish this am: the weather and the $. The third critical componet, the funds, are unlikely to be big, aggressive buyers this am and they could very well continue as sellers today, as was the case yesterday. Thus, is appears likely we will start and stay lower today, barring a change in the direction of the $, a change to wet weather in the updated forecast later this am, or big fund buying.

The USDA just announced China bought 356,000 tonnes of US beans for the 2009-10 crop year, which started Sep 1. There had been talk since late yesterday afternoon that there would be a Chinese bean purchase announced this am but only a couple of cargoes, roughly 110-115,000 tonnes. This larger than expected sale should help limit losses in beans this am, although I still expect them to be lower.

Favorable weather is forecast to continue in both Argentina and Brazil the next several days or longer. The US Midwest will stay dry the next 5-7 days or longer, allowing rapid harvest progress in corn and beans as well as late soft red winter wheat planting, although it is too late in the season in much of the Midwest to plant the crop now. The delta will stay dry until Monday, when some renewed rain is forecast, delaying late bean harvesting again. The southwest should continue to enjoy favorable late season winter wheat planting weather.