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Thursday, November 19, 2009

Outside markets indicate lower grains start

A lower start is indicated by the slightly higher $, lower gold and crude oil markets as well as overnight losses in the grains. The early call is 12-15 down in wheat, 5-7 lower corn and 7-10 off in beans.

Egypt is in the market for optional origin wheat and results should be out before the grain opening. It is doubtful Egypt will buy any US wheat since our prices are not competitive in the world market.

Weekly export sales were mixed: in line for wheat, 362,000 tonnes, and oil, 12,000 tonnes; slow for corn, 353,000 tonnes; and very good for beans and meal, 1.350,000 tonnes and 357,000 tonnes, respectively. I was told the Census Bureau Oct crush would be out this am but that apparently is not the case this am.

Argentine crops benefited from up to 2" of rain scattered over parts of the grain belt the last 24 hours. The forecast calls for mostly dry weather the next several days but widespread rain is possible again early next week, which should help keep crops in good shape overall. Conditions remain favorable also in most of Brazil although some areas, especially in the southern part of the country, have had too much rain recently and more is forecast there the next few days.

The US southwest was generally dry the last 24 hours and will remain this way today through Tuesday next week, allowing winter wheat planting to finish. The midwest saw only light, scattered rain in the west the last 24 hours with up to .6" in the eastern half of the belt during this time. The midwest will be mostly dry the rest of this week into early next, helping speed up corn harvesting and finish bean harvesting. The 6-10 day predicts below normal rain in the west but above normal in the east.

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