A slightly lower start is likely this am, 1-2 in wheat and corn, 3-5 in beans. The $ is just a shade lower this am, not enough to impact the grains much either way.

Corn harvest progress was 68% complete vs 94% average while beans were 94% done vs 97% average. Winter wheat planting reached 93% vs 97% average. Emergence was 84% vs 90% average.

Jan beans just missed taking out their August high yesterday and when they couldn't do this the selling started, eventually sending beans, as well as the rest of the floor, lower. The upper 10.60's now represents strong overhead resistance in Jan beans.

The USDA attache in Brazil estimated the 2009-10 Brazilian bean crop at 63.6 million tonnes vs the current USDA guess of 63 million.

There is a strong seasonal tendency for beans to close higher the day before Thanksgiving and a modest seasonal tendency for them to end higher the day after Thanksgiving. Over the last 30 years or so, beans have ended higher the day before Thanksgiving roughly 75% of the time. Buy Jan beans on the close today and sell them on the close tomorrow if you want to take advantage of this tendency.

Argentina will benefit from up to 1.5" of rain in the southwest part of the grain belt today with this rain spreading to the north and east by tomorrow. More welcome rain is predicted Sunday. Too much rain continues falling in southern Brazil, specifically Rio Grande state, the third largest bean producing state in Brazil. Overall, conditions remain very favorable, however, in both Brazil and Argentina.

The Midwest US saw scattered rain the last 24 hours, especially in the western half of the belt where up to 3/4" fell. Rain will be scattered across the Midwest today, lingering into tomorrow. More unwelcome Midwestern rain is forecast Sunday. The 6-10 day predicts above normal rain, especially in the southeastern part of the belt, which will delay late corn harvesting.