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Friday, November 20, 2009

$ strength to weigh on commodities

Prices were mostly lower overnight and that is the early call this am, 5 down in wheat, 3-4 off in corn and 1 lower beans. The $ is strong this am and this is expected to weigh on commodities in general, not just grains. Up until this week, grain prices usually moved in the opposite direction of the $. However, the last three days bean prices have moved in the same direction as the $, throwing doubt on the correlation between grain prices, at least in the case of beans, and the $. There is little in the way of fresh news this am outside of the $ and the weather.

Conditions remain very favorable overall in Brazil although there is too much rain in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, the third largest bean producing state in the country. Argentine weather has improved considerably this week with widespread rain. It will be mostly dry in the main Argentine grain growing provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe today through Sunday but fairly widespread rain is forecast Mon-Tue with moderate to heavy amounts, which will be very welcome.

The US midwest was mostly dry yesterday and more of the same is predicted for the weekend before scattered precipitation in the form of rain or snow moves into the belt early next week. The 6-10 day calls for below normal precipitation in the west, above normal in the east. Bean harvesting won't be affected very much since it is almost complete but there will be some harvest delays next week in corn.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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