Turn around Tuesday likely in grains
It's Tuesday and the market appears poised to undergo another "turn-a-round Tuesday" pattern where prices reverse course from Monday's direction. This means we will be lower initially, as was the case overnight. The $ has reversed course from yesterday with a vengence, trading considerably higher this am. This strongly encouraged overnight selling in all the grains and a similarly lower start is likely this am, roughly 5 cents in wheat, corn and beans. Traders will be watching the direction of the $ closely again today for guidance in the grains.
The weekly crop progress report showed bean harvesting a little less than expected at 89% with corn in line at 54%. Normally, beans should be 96% done by now with corn usually 89% complete. Winter wheat planting hit 90% vs 95% average. Emergence reached 77% vs 87% average.
Earlier this month, the USDA raised its Argentine bean crop guess to 53 million tonnes from 52.5 million in October. However, others are going in the opposite direction - the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina cut its estimate to 47 million tonnes while Oil World, the widely followed analytical firm, cut its guess to 48 million tonnes from 50 million estimated a couple of weeks ago and 52 million last month. Dry weather is behind the lower estimates but there is a change in the forecast that could boost the outlook for Argentine crops.
The USDA this am announced Mexico bought a total of 210,000 tonnes of US corn, 132,000 tonnes for the 2009-10 crop year and 77,000 tonnes for the 2010-11 crop year, which starts Sep 1, 2010.
Meteorlogix Weather says up to 1" of much needed rain fell the last 24 hours in southwestern Buenos Aires province which up until today was the driest part of the Argentine grain belt. The forecast calls for widespread rain over most of the Argentine grain belt, including the three main growing provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, with up to 1.5" of moisture between today and Thursday before drier weather returns. This rain will be vital in helping Argentine crops and should be very beneficial.
The US midwest saw scattered up to 1.5" rain the last 24 hours. Up to 1.5" light rain is forecast in the western half of the belt today with heavier, scattered rain in the east the next 2 days. This rain is unwelcome as it will slow corn and late bean harvesting once again. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could further delay harvest progress, especially for corn.
The weekly crop progress report showed bean harvesting a little less than expected at 89% with corn in line at 54%. Normally, beans should be 96% done by now with corn usually 89% complete. Winter wheat planting hit 90% vs 95% average. Emergence reached 77% vs 87% average.
Earlier this month, the USDA raised its Argentine bean crop guess to 53 million tonnes from 52.5 million in October. However, others are going in the opposite direction - the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina cut its estimate to 47 million tonnes while Oil World, the widely followed analytical firm, cut its guess to 48 million tonnes from 50 million estimated a couple of weeks ago and 52 million last month. Dry weather is behind the lower estimates but there is a change in the forecast that could boost the outlook for Argentine crops.
The USDA this am announced Mexico bought a total of 210,000 tonnes of US corn, 132,000 tonnes for the 2009-10 crop year and 77,000 tonnes for the 2010-11 crop year, which starts Sep 1, 2010.
Meteorlogix Weather says up to 1" of much needed rain fell the last 24 hours in southwestern Buenos Aires province which up until today was the driest part of the Argentine grain belt. The forecast calls for widespread rain over most of the Argentine grain belt, including the three main growing provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, with up to 1.5" of moisture between today and Thursday before drier weather returns. This rain will be vital in helping Argentine crops and should be very beneficial.
The US midwest saw scattered up to 1.5" rain the last 24 hours. Up to 1.5" light rain is forecast in the western half of the belt today with heavier, scattered rain in the east the next 2 days. This rain is unwelcome as it will slow corn and late bean harvesting once again. The 6-10 day calls for above normal rain, which could further delay harvest progress, especially for corn.
posted by InsightPublishing at
8:57 AM
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