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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Weak $ should encourage buying in the grains

A higher start is forecast this am, 10-12 wheat, 5-10 corn and 7-10 beans. The $ is very weak and this should encourage buying in all the grains as a weak $ makes US grain exports more competitive in the world market.

Egypt is in the market for wheat this am with results expected shortly before our grain opening. They are not expected to buy any US wheat as our prices are still too high relative to other countries.

Monday is first notice day for Dec deliveries.

There is a strong seasonal tendency for beans (and to a lesser extent corn) to close higher today, the day before Thanksgiving. This has happened roughly 75% of the time over the last 30 years or more.

Weekly Export Sales will be out Friday am and the Commitment of Traders report will be out Monday afternoon.

The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 tonnes of US wheat to Iraq this am. The Census Bureau Oct crush was in line, 163.1 million bushels. Oil stocks were a little less than expected, 2.727 billion lbs but meal stocks were higher than expected, 445,000 short tons.

Favorable weather continues in Argentina with up to 1.5" in Buenos Aires province the last 24 hours. More beneficial rain is forecast in northeastern grain areas today and again over the weekend. Brazil will see widespread but scattered rain today-Friday. More is forecast this weekend into early next week in Rio Grande and Parana states. Too much rain has fallen in Rio Grande but overall Brazilian conditions remain favorable.

The US Midwest saw scattered rain the last 24 hours, up to 1" in the west, up to 3/4" in the east. Light precipitation is forecast today in the west, today-tomorrow in the east, followed by generally dry weather for a day or two. Additional precipitation in the form of rain or snow is forecast in the east early next week. This isn't a problem for beans but it will further slow corn harvesting.

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