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Monday, November 23, 2009

Weak $ to boost grains

A higher start is forecast in all pits this am, 10-15 wheat, 5-7 corn and 20 beans. The very weak $ is behind the expected big gains in the grains. Other commodity markets as well as equities are reacting bullishly to the weak $ also this am. The last four trading days of last week beans moved in the same direction as the $ but that doesn't seem to be the case this am.

The Weekly Harvest Progress report late this afternoon is likely to show corn harvesting roughly 2/3 done with beans almost complete along with winter wheat planting.

Australian wheat stocks were 3.7 million tonnes at the end of October, almost twice their year ago level and a reflection of the fact there are plenty of wheat supplies around the world. US wheat prices remain too high priced relative to our competitors but the sinking $ is lifting wheat values anyway, at least for now.

Up to 6" of unwanted rain fell in southern Brazil over the weekend but only up to 1" was seen in the north during this time. More unwanted rain is forecast this week in southern Brazil, which will slow bean planting efforts. Some rain is also forecast in central and northern Brazil the next few days. Argentina was mostly dry in the southwest over the weekend but light, scattered rain fell in northern and eastern parts of the country. Up to 3/4" scattered, beneficial rain is forecast tomorrow, favoring northern and eastern areas although some welcome rain is also expected in the southwest region.

The southwest US winter wheat belt was mostly dry over the weekend, allowing late planting efforts to progress. Light, scattered rain is predicted in the northeast part of the belt today-tomorrow before dry weather moves in the second half of the week. The Midwest had a mostly dry weekend, helping late bean and corn harvesting efforts. Up to 1" rain is forecast in the west tonight-tomorrow with dry weather the second half of the week. The east will see scattered rain tomorrow-Thursday. The 6-10 day forecast is for above normal rain, which could slow late corn harvest progress.

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