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Thursday, December 17, 2009

$ at three month high

A lower start indicated in all pits, roughly 10 wheat, 5 corn and 5-10 beans. The $ is very strong this am, weighing heavily on various commodities such as gold and, to a lesser extent, crude oil. The $ is now at a three-month high, a bearish signal for all commodities.

Weekly export sales were in line for wheat at 345,000 tonnes and meal at 191,000 tonnes. The rest were good: 1.227 million tonnes of corn, 935,000 tonnes of beans and 21,000 tonnes of oil. China accounted for 668,000 tonnes of the bean sales.

Yesterday, Argentina's Agricultural Ministry lowered their estimated bean planting area from 18.5 million hectares to 18.2 million. (1 hectare = 2.471 acres) They increased their estimated corn planting area to 3.16 million hectares from 3.06 million previously. Chinese traders think the Chinese government will soon release up to 500,000 tonnes of bean oil and 300,000 tonnes of rapeseed oil into the Chinese market to stabilize prices and ensure adequate supplies. This was talked about a week ago and at that time it weighed on our bean oil market. However, this talk didn't generate any pressure today in the Malaysian palm oil market, which ended 34 ringgit higher at a 6 1/2 month high so it probably won't have much impact on our bean oil market today, especially since the Chinese government is expected to replenish any oil stocks they sell with fresh stocks.

Argentina saw light rain the last 24 hours in the big grain growing provinces of Santa Fe and Cordoba. More widespread rain is forecast Fri-Sun, up to 1.5", which will be very beneficial for the crops. Brazil will be mostly dry in the south the next several days before rain might return early next week, which isn't needed. The north had up to 1.25" the last 24 hours with more possible Fri-Sun.

The midwest was mostly dry the last 24 hours. Light snow is possible the next several days. The 6-10 day calls for below normal moisture in the north, above normal in the south.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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