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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Mixed grains start likely; little fresh news

A mixed start is likely this am, steady/lower wheat, steady corn and 2-4 better beans. As is typical for this time of year, there isn't much fresh market moving news so we could have another slow, dull session. Some traders expect a "turn-a-round Tuesday" type trade today with the market reversing course from yesterday's mostly lower close.

Weekly Export Inspections will be out at 10am, US Central time. Preliminary expectations are 13-17 million bushels in wheat, 28-32 million in corn and 45-50 million in beans. This afternoon, 3pm US Central time, the Weekly Corn Harvest Progress Report will be out with traders expecting around 94-96% of the crop harvested. Tomorrow am the Census Bureau will release the Nov monthly Crush Report. I should have trade estimates later today for this report.

Jan options expire Thursday at noon, US Central time when the grains close early for the Christmas holiday.

Algeria is in the market for optional origin wheat but they probably will not buy any US origin.

Argentina will see scattered rain today in the southwest part of the country with this rain spreading to the north and east tomorrow or Thursday. More beneficial rain is forecast Sat-Mon. Brazil will see widely scattered rain in the south the next few days and again early next week. The north will see scattered rain the next 3-5 days. Overall, conditions remain very favorable in most of Argentina and Brazil, increasing the prospects for very large crops this season.

More precipitation in the form of rain or snow is forecast in parts of the Midwest and southwest the next few days. This will continue delaying late corn harvesting in the Midwest while providing subsoil moisture for winter wheat in the southwest, which will be helpful in the spring when the crop comes out of its winter dormancy.

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. You should not rely on any of this information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. There is unlimited risk of loss with selling options. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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